2009 NFL Season: 12-2 on Week 11 Predictions

Not a bad week.  Shoulda gone to Vegas.  I wonder what a 12 pack pays straight up?

This was the week that the AFC North teams all believed the hype about themselves or their opponent and fell to pieces.  The Steelers, Bengals and Browns all played on the road and thought they’d run roughshod over the Chiefs, Raiders and Lions.  Every one of them had a rude awakening.

For the Bengals, the loss could be the beginning of the end.   This is the second time this season that the division-leading Cincinnati Bengals have lost following big games in the division.  On the heels of an early season win over Baltimore, the Bengals promptly lost at home to the Houston Texans.  Yesterday, the Bengals were fresh off a physical win at Pittsburgh.  They lost at the Raiders.

Note: The Raiders have beaten the Eagles and Bengals.  They played the Chargers to a near draw.  They’ve split two contests with the Chiefs.  At 3-7, the Raiders remaining games are the type of games where they’ve played to the level of their competition all season.  Week 12 — at Dallas.  Week 13 — at Pittsburgh.

The Bengals were supposed to be in the “catbird seat.”  In the next two weeks, they play Cleveland and Detroit.  (You have to love the symmetry of the NFL schedule.)  After that, they go on the road to face Minnesota and San Diego in consecutive weeks.  What looked like a glamorous dance ticket featuring a 10-2 Bengal team vs. an 11-win Viking team lost a bit of luster yesterday.  Cincinnati needs to get back to the form that allowed them to put up 45 on the declawed Bears.

As for the Steelers, there are two ways of looking at yesterday’s loss to the Chiefs.  Let’s take the “best case scenario” first.  ”We lost to a team we should have beaten by 40 points.   We dominated nearly every phase of the game.  We didn’t lose any real ground in the playoff race because the Bengals lost, and because we still hold tie-breakers over the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos.”  That’s the good news and embracing it would be foolish, at best.

The worst-case scenario goes like this: “Are you KIDDING ME?!?!?  Three turnovers AGAIN!  Special teams touchdown AGAIN!!  QB knocked out of the game with Baltimore up next week!!  Chris Chambers?  Really?  Matt Cassel?  Jamaal Charles?  Really?”

I missed the pick on both of these games, but I had a feeling that both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh could lose these games.  The Steelers never play well in Arrowhead.  The Bengals seldom play well in Oakland.  After beating up on one another last week, it was natural to expect a let down…a loss of focus…an inattention to detail — and that’s what happened.

I went 12-12 on the rest of the picks…so it wasn’t a total loss.

Quick run down:

• Dallas 7, Washington 6. Washington’s pass defense is better than advertised.  The Cowboys were able to win this war of attrition because they ran the ball 34 times and because the Redskins don’t have playmakers on offense.  I thought it would close, but not that close.  Two weeks of scoring a single touchdown in the final 3 minutes — nervous time in Big D at 7-3.
• Arizona 21, St. Louis 13. Arizona is doing exactly what they need to do — build confidence in their running game.  184 yards vs. the Rams is commendable.  The Cardinals are beating the teams they are supposed to beat and they’re beating the teams they’re not supposed to beat.  The defending conference champion is sitting pretty — even without a healthy Kurt Warner.
• Indianapolis 17, Baltimore 15. I don’t know what Ed Reed was thinking.  I don’t know what Joe Flacco was thinking.  The Ravens simply aren’t good enough to play this way.  They’re not.
• Detroit 38, Cleveland 37. Riveting, exciting, down to the wire…just like I pictured it!  Not exactly.  I am a believer in Matthew Stafford and have been since I actually watched him play an entire game.  The Lions have a lot of work to do, and they have to convince ownership that having a winner in Motown is worthwhile.  The Ford family would rather lose and take the tax deduction.
• Green Bay 30, San Francisco 24. If this game was played in San Francisco, the score would probably have been reversed.  Green Bay is on the outside looking in, but they hold tiebreakers over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Packers have beaten every likely playoff team in the NFC except the Vikings.  They play Arizona in Week 17.  That game should decide their fate.  If Dallas doesn’t win the NFC East, remember what happened between those 2 in Week 10.
• Jacksonville 18, Buffalo 15. Mediocrity and anonymity.  Shush!  Congrats to Mr. Owens who proved he can still do a little something-something.  9 catches for 197 yards and a score is outstanding production.   According to nfl.com:  (Jaguar WR, Mike) Sims-Walker asked Owens for his jersey after the game. Owens obliged, pulling it off and graciously handing it over with a smile near midfield.  ”Might show I’m washed up,” Owens joked. “I take it as a compliment that I can still play this game.”
• Minnesota 35, Seattle 9. The Seahawks are not a good team.  I’m still trying to wrap my head around how they beat Jacksonville 41-0.  Minnesota is a well-oiled machine right now.  If you cannot stop the run and get pressure without blitzing, you’re not beating the Vikings.
• New York Giants 34, Atlanta 31 (OT). I told you that Jason Snelling would take care of business.  The Falcons still miss Michael Turner, but they had their chances.  Giants just got off life support.  The Falcons have lost to the Giants and Eagles.  The scheduling gods have been kind — sort of.  In Weeks 13 and 14, the Dirty Birds host the Eagles (Welcome Home, Mr. Vick) and the Saints.  If the Falcons invest as much emotional energy in that tilt vs. the Eagles as I suspect, they will get steam-rolled by the Saints and ousted from the playoffs.  They’ll need to entice Philly into passing the ball 50 or 60 times and hope for an easy game.
• New Orleans 38, Tampa Bay 7. When the Saints run the rock, they are as tough as nails.  Mike Bell finishes runs well enough to play for the Dolphins .  Next week’s game vs. New England is going to be a classic.  As long as Payton remembers that Belichick is going to take away his three favorite options: Pierre Thomas on first down, Marques Colston deep, and Shockey on 3rd and short, the Saints should be fine.  BTW, Colston will still be open deep.  The Brady-Sharper matchup will be great.
• San Diego 32, Denver 3. Didn’t everyone just know that San Diego was going to maul Denver?  Sure you did.  I gave the Broncos too much credit.  I thought they’d be able to muster one touchdown.  San Diego will be representing the AFC West in the playoffs.  Denver will be retooling to get bigger and younger on defense after the “Age of Reason” Experiment fails with Brian Dawkins and Ty Law and Blue Beard’s gray beard.  (Note:  It’s working about as well as it did with John Lynch.)
• New England 31, New York Jets 14. Ay papi, that was sloppy.  The Jets usually need the Patriots to be distracted in order to play well against them.  Last week’s loss at Indy sharpened the Patriots focus to a razor’s edge.  So long Jets.  So long Rexy.  So long Sexy.  The Jets will wait for next year and fade into the AFC East rear view mirror – like a roadside diner serving runny eggs and stale coffee.
• Philadelphia 24, Chicago 20. The Eagles run, the Eagles win…simple.  30 carries.  156 yards.  Nice formula.

I should be so lucky next week.  :)

2009 NFL Season: Week 11 Picks

Week 11 means desperation time.  I can smell the sweat and feel the anxiety in the Meadowlands and Baltimore and Philadelphia and San Diego and Denver.  One place where no one can smell desperation is Charlotte, North Carolina.  I didn’t write a post for the Dolphins-Panthers contest, but if you’ve been reading you know I liked Miami.

Carolina’s new offensive coordinator did it again.  He allowed Jake Delhomme to throw the ball more than 40 times.  The Panthers did not rely on their offensive line and lost another winnable game.   They did not rely on DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to carry the load.  When those two combine for 25 carries, book the loss.

15 targets to Steve Smith for all of 87 yards.  Like I said — book the loss.

On to Sunday:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs. If the Chiefs were remotely decent, I’d like their chances in this game.  The Steelers always play games that are a bit too interesting in Kansas City.  I’m still recovering from Dante Hall’s exhibition there a few years back.  No Bowe, no way.  Pittsburgh 45, Kansas City 6.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys. If Washington can keep the rush off of Jason Campbell, they can stay close.  I don’t believe Tony Romo will sling the ball all over the new stadium vs. the ‘Skins.  Their pass defense has been smothering.  For me, the only question is whether or not Jason Garrett will run the ball or if he’ll be trying to score “Genius Points” by showing he’s the smartest guy in the building.  He tried that last week at Green Bay and failed miserably.  Humble pie equals a Cowboy win.  Dallas 21, Washington 17.

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions. How does this happen?  How?  It’s time for Congress to initiate those hearings against the  Ford family for failing to field a competitive franchise.  WTF?  Eric Mangini may know enough about football to get a job, but he doesn’t know enough about people to keep it.  Detroit 24, Cleveland 13.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers. For me, this is simply a tough game to pick.  The 49ers just have to compete in this game if they are to have any hope at all of making the playoffs.  The Packers are coming off of two of the most bizarre games all season: a 38-28 loss at Tampa and a 58-minute shut out of the Dallas Cowboys.  The 49ers have had more impressive losses than impressive wins.  Losses at Minnesota and at Houston probably mean this team just isn’t ready to win big games away from home — unless they really the opponent (Arizona, Week 1).  I like Rodgers and the Packers to make this more difficult than it needs to be.  Green Bay 31, Vernon Davis 28.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants. How the mighty have fallen.  If the Falcons were playing the Giants without Michael Turner in Week 1, they’d be 20 point dogs.  On Sunday, Jason Snelling and company could pull this one off.  The Giants are coming off a bye week, so there are no excuses.  The Falcons have lost to every power team they’ve faced this season — except Miami in Week 1 (at New England, at New Orleans, at Dallas).  Still, I’m not so sure.  I like the maturation of the Falcon DB’s.  When Turner hit the Panthers for 111 yards on his first 9 carries, they were expecting big things.  The weak link in big games this season has been “Matty Ice.”  New York has been unseasonably warm and I suspect the thaw continues.  New York 21, Atlanta 20.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It has all the makings of an epic trap game.  Mizzo over at TSF has already picked the Buccaneers to pull off the win of the year.   I’m not going there, but I can see how a 38-28 win over the Packers, a home date against the recently struggling Drew Brees, and an emerging defense is attractive.  I think the Saints shift gears and run the ball down the Buccaneers throat all day long.

Side Note:  If you want to know how weak the rushing game is in New England or Philadelphia or how committed Jason Garrett is to being cute with the passing game, take a look at the rushing stats against the Buccaneers this season.   Only New England, Philadelphia and Dallas failed to amass 125 yards on the ground.  In the last two weeks, the Bucs surrendered 199 yards to Miami and 170 yards to Green Bay.  Conversely, only New England and Dallas have thrown for more than 250 yards vs. the Bucs.

The best path to victory for the Saints is on the ground.  If they attack through the air, they might find more pewter than gold.  New Orleans 23, Tampa Bay 10.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars. Something tells that Jacksonville should, quite literally, run away with this game.  Maurice Jones-Drew is an elite running back and he is on top of his game.  The Bills have had far more success against the pass this season.  They’ve been excellent in pass coverage this season.  The Bills have surrendered only two 300 yard games all season: to New England in Week 1 (Tom Brady – 53 passes) and to Carolina in Week 7 (Jake Delhomme – 44 passes).  Garrard is an efficient passer and tends not to turn the ball over.  I hope that the new Bills coach lets it all hang out.  I think the Del Rio’s win a close one.  Of course, if Buffalo can stuff the run (for once), they’ve got a great chance to do some things.  Jacksonville 27, Buffalo 21.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens. Remember when the 2006 Colts marched into the playoffs with their usual gaudy record and were poised to play a Steve McNair-led Raven team on the road.  Sure you do.  You thought that game looked a lot like this one.  The Ravens of that season were not as good offensively as this team, but they were better defensively.  The Colts were basically the same old Colts.  They had been mauled by the Jaguars for 300 yards rushing — in one game.  They were dead last in rushing defense heading into the playoffs.  That game was decided in the trenches.  It will be on Sunday as well.  In 2006, the Colts won in Baltimore by running the ball and beating Baltimore at their own game.  If I could name a healthy Raven other than Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, I might buy it.  I can’t, I don’t.  Heavy doses of Addai and Brown between the tackles will get it done.  No one expects it…but if they see it again, they’ll never forget it.  Indianapolis 24, Baltimore 19.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings. Any road trip to face Minnesota and Jared Allen without Walter Jones is bound to be painful.  Matt Hasselbeck’s ribs are not likely to improve on this trip.  If he survives the game, it will be a minor miracle.  Steve Hutchinson will be smiling all day and drinking from Brett’s Fountain of Revenge.  3-6 will become 3-7.  Minnesota 38, Seattle 17.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams. Trap game!  The Cardinals have found their winning stride and need to stay focused here.  They hold all the cards (no pun intended) to the NFC West.  Arizona has won five of six games since a humbling loss to the Colts in Week 3.  The Rams are not going to be pushovers this week.  The venue alone should be enough to keep Kurt Warner from returning to his fumbling ways.  Ball security will rule the day.  Get the ball to Larry and Anquan.  Too much Beanie in the gap will mean balls on the carpet. Arizona 17, St. Louis 12.

New York Jets at New England Patriots. If the Patriots had beaten the Colts last weak, the Jets would have  a shot.  Since The Blunder, the Jets have no chance.  Having said that, they’ll peel off that dusty Mangini tape and win the game.  Nah!  I still like Revis on Moss — as long as the pressure gets there.  New England 18, New York 15.

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders. Trap game!  The Raiders may be dysfunctional.  They may have benched JaMarcus Russell, but they still have talent and a cross-country trip is a cross-country trip.  And, to top it off, the Bengals are coming off of their regular season Super Bowl.  The Bengals lost to the Texans this season after feeling too good about themselves on the heels of an impressive win over the Ravens.  This time is probably different, but you never know.  Maybe the Raiders make the big special teams play this week.  Maybe Richard Seymour takes advantage of the absence of Cedric Benson and the adjustments to be made by Larry Johnson.  Maybe Nnamdi Asomougha does an Ike Taylor imitation and keeps Chad Ochocinco running on treinta y tres. The Raiders have proven they can play head-to-head and toe-to-toe with anyone (San Diego, Philadelphia).  Maybe the Raiders pull this out as redemption for the Bengals ending Bo Jackson’s career.  Nah!  Cincinnati 14, Oakland 13.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos. I’ve been waiting for this game ever since people started talking smack about how good the Broncos were after beating Dallas and New England.  I never thought the Broncos were all that impressive.  If I’ve been waiting for this game, I KNOW the Chargers have been waiting for this game.  Eddie Royal gashed them for two special teams touchdowns on national television.  The men in baby blue must have been kicking themselves that night.  This week, they get their only shot at redemption and at first place in the AFC West.  The Steelers were facing the same opportunity last week — and lost.  The differences for San Diego are several:  they’re on the road; Kyle Orton is not likely to play; and their play has improved in recent weeks.  They’ve notched wins over the Giants and Eagles in consecutive weeks.  San Diego 33, Denver 13.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears. The Eagles should win this game running away.  The problem is that they will not run the ball.  Chicago is going to keep this game close because of the play calling by the Eagles.  The Bears WANT the Eagles to pass the ball.  Andy Reid will comply.  I think this could be an uneven, ugly game filled with penalties, turnovers, and timeouts.  It just may be that if neither McNabb nor Cutler is on target that the incompletions could drag this game well into the night.  The stars of this game could be DeSean Jackson on special teams and Devin Hester.  Philadelphia 13, Chicago 10.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans. The Texans are just not winning this game.  Tennessee 31, Houston 26.

And that’s all he wrote.

A Question of Timing: The Return of Troy Polamalu

The 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers are not the same team without all-world strong safety Troy Polamalu.  He aggravated his injured knee during last week’s game vs. the Bengals at Heinz Field.  Should he play and how soon?  That’s the question.

The situation in Pittsburgh is not critical.  It’s just complicated.

After 10 weeks, the team is 6-3 with control of their own playoff destiny and a chance to win the AFC North.  In each of three losses this season, Polamalu’s absence has been felt, but it was arguably not the decisive factor.

Turnovers and special teams defense have been crucial in each game.  In Week 2, the Steelers lost at Chicago and were minus 2 in the turnover battle.  One turnover was an underthrown ball to speedy WR Mike Wallace who was running behind the Bears defense.  That interception, influenced by spirited pressure from Bears RDE Alex Brown, turned that game around.

The following week, the Steelers were dominating the Bengals 13-3, in Cincinnati when Ben Roethlisberger fired a “pick six” to Bengal DB Jonathan Joseph.  The Bengals woke up and won the game making the same pass that defeated the Steelers a week before.  In Chicago, Jay Cutler zipped a ball in front of Tyrone Carter for a 7 yard score.  In Cincinnati, Carson Palmer found Andre Caldwell from 4 yards out and a score.  Both slants to the right side are probably never even considered with Polamalu on the field.

Nonetheless, it shouldn’t have come to that.

The Steelers can win every game remaining on their schedule without Troy Polamalu.  In order to do so, they’ll need to do little things like take care of the ball, maintain lane discipline and tackle on special teams, and run in the Red Zone.  They did not do these things well in Week 10 and lost a tough game.  A defense capable of holding the Cincinnati Bengals to 218 yards of total offense can run the table.  The offense and special teams need to carry their weight.

Remaining games: at Kansas City, at Baltimore, Oakland, at Cleveland, Green Bay, Baltimore, at Miami.

The Bengals still have tough games on the road at San Diego, at Minnesota and at the Jets.

 

2009 NFL Season: Week 10 – Misery Loves Company

The Steelers lost to the Bengals for the second time this season.  I’m not happy about it.  At least the Cowboys are being shut out by the Packers.

Congratulations to the Bengals who have swept the season series with both the Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.  The race in the AFC North is over and the Bengals are going to the playoffs.

Now is the time to fine tune the team and work on bringing the hammer every week.  I hope the Steelers can play the Bengals again – with Troy Polamalu in the fold…and I hope that Ben Roethlisberger takes some mustard off of his throws.  Overthrown balls in the end zone to Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace were the difference in this game. And, then there were the two underthrown balls to Wallace who was running behind the defense.  Arrrrgh!!!

It happens. 

Yeaaaah!!!

My misery index is now at ZERO.

After watching The Genius of Video go for a 4th down deep in his territory and squander a 13 point lead in the 4th quarter, I’ve SEEN IT ALL…and I’m happy as all hell.  The Colts beat the Patriots in a game they richly deserved to lose.  And I think the bloom is off the rose.

Bill Belichick has lost his mind and I’m so glad.    That post-game handshake was so quick, I wonder if Jim Caldwell even got a good look at Mr. Bill.  What a putz!

2009 NFL Season: Announcing Josh Freeman

From where I’m sitting, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have accomplished one thing this season.  They’ve shown that they have 3 quarterbacks who can make plays and that they have a defense that is a shadow of its former self.  The offense has hardly been lights out this season, but when you consider that the offensive coordinator was fired at the start of the season, that the team has a new head coach, that the starting QB was determined at the end of pre-season, and that two of the QB’s who’ve started this season are new to town, you simply cannot have high expectations.  As I’ve said, Byron Leftwich was not the reason the Buccaneers were not winning games at the beginning of the season.  They were losing for the same reasons they lost prior to last week: a profound inability to stop the run.

When Leftwich was benched, he was 6th in passing yards in the NFL.  Guess who is 6th in passing yards right now?  Ben Roethlisberger.

Leftwich performed well in relief of Roethlisberger last year.  Given that Antonio Bryant has played hurt for the entire season, that Michael Clayton is somewhere between Chris Chambers and Chris Henry, and that the Bucs don’t have a reliable deep threat, Leftwich did a credible job.  The same can be said for Josh Johnson — except that he was compelled to play against teams like New England (#3 pass defense) and Carolina (#5 pass defense) and Philadelphia (#2 with 15 INTs) and Washington (#1 pass defense).  Forget that Leftwich scored 21 points against Dallas and threw for nearly 300 yards vs. Buffalo.  Forget that Josh Johnson fought hard against some of the best defenses in the league.

This season has been about one thing and one thing only.  The “joined at the hip” relationship between former Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman and former Kansas State defensive coordinator Raheem Morris.  The fate of one is going to determine the fate of the other.  I could be wrong about this, but I think Morris has decided (and rightfully so) that the 2009 season isn’t about making a playoff run.  The team has too much to fix.  Instead, the 2009 season was about figuring out the best time and place for Josh Freeman to show and prove why he was drafted in the Doug Williams slot (Round 1, Pick 17).  It wasn’t about throwing Freeman to the wolves, either.  It may have been about sacrificing Byron Leftwich (an act that may have become easier to do after that 24-0 shutout at the hands of the Giants).  It may have been about either showcasing Josh Johnson or establishing him as a solid #2 behind Freeman.  Either way, Josh Freeman’s time is now.

If you want to know why he was drafted 17th overall, it’s all right here.

In Week 9 against the Green Bay Packers, the Bucs were trailing 14-7 toward the end of the first quarter.  Tampa was facing a 3rd and 10 in their own territory.  Green Bay had sent pressure on first and second down to force incompletions and had 9 men close to the line on 3rd down.

3 Down Lineman, 3 Linebackers, 3 DBs - Whose Coming to Dinner?

This is the type of down and distance that even veteran quarterbacks face with great difficulty.  Freeman, though, was calm under pressure.

Freeman recognizes the pressure, but keeps cool.

On this play, the Packers bring pressure right up the gut and force Freeman to decide if he will roll left or right.

Too Close for Comfort!

With all of his wide receivers and Kellen Winslow headed down field, Freeman has two options.

One of Freeman’s options was to run and hope to outrun two Packers.  His second, and best, option was to hit running back Derrick Ward who was wide open just behind the oncoming rush.  Ward exploded through the Packer defense for 38 yards and a first down.  It was the longest pass play of the day.  It kept the chains moving and allowed the Bucs to plant a foundation for a surprising 38-28 win.

Freeman to Ward. 38 yards.

Perhaps Raheem Morris plays chess on his off days.  Whatever he does, he appears to know exactly what he wants at quarterback — even after three bites at the apple.

2009 NFL Season: Week 10 Pick (Thursday Edition)

It is officially “on.”  We have passed the half-way point of the season.  National sportswriters, desperate for an angle, have begun to pass out “Midway Medals” and “Halfway Honors” to players they cover every week, and the opponents they love to hate.

Tonight, I like the 49ers to win a tight contest.  I’ve picked the Niners on the road vs. the Texans and at home vs. the Titans.  They lost both games.  In between those winnable games was a hard fought loss to the Indianapolis Colts.  Now that the 49ers have definitively proven they would be the “weak sister” of the AFC South, its on to small fish in the NFC.

"Devin, let me hold that for you!"

Aside from desperately needing to win this game, the Bears and 49ers can also commiserate over a pair of embarassing 45-10 losses.   The Falcons beat San Francisco by that score in Week 5.  The Bengals blasted the Bears in Week 7.

I know the college interns have been pouring over databases all week looking for the last time two teams played one another in the same season they lost by that score, by that margin, on a Thursday night, in prime time, with playoff hopes hanging in the balance, with two Black head coaches, with highly-touted quarterbacks who have not quite fit in with the team that drafted them, and, last but not least, with axes to grind against the Minnesota Vikings.  This is certainly going to an epic matchup.

It could go one of  three ways:

1. San Francisco 45, Chicago 10.
2. Chicago 45, San Francisco 10.
3. San Francisco 10, Chicago 10.

There simply isn’t enough time to wait for both of these teams to score 45 points.

I’ll take option 1.  The Niners get it together at home and the world is introduced to Alex Smith for the first time and Vernon Davis, for the second time.

2009 NFL Season: Chad Ochocinco Serves Fries

And a shake to Baltimore Raven CB Dominique Foxworth.

Mano-a-mano. Shading Chad to the Inside. Hut-hut-hut!

It’s going to get hectic.

He's Not Going Inside! Damn!

Chad’s Not Done…and Neither is Dominique.

"Gotta Get Up! Quick...Recover!!"

Chad’s thinking, “I did my part, where is the damn ball?”

A perfect throw from Carson Palmer on this play probably goes for a touchdown.  That perfect pass never came.  The Bengals didn’t need it because this season, they are simply better than the Ravens.  Palmer is 8-3 (career) against the Ravens.  Chad has always been a big part of that.  From what I can see, he hasn’t lost a step — and if he has, Dominique Foxworth won’t find that lost step any time soon.

2009 NFL Season: Steelers Smother Broncos, 28-10

Like I said when they were 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, and 5-0, and 6-0…” I’m not buyin!”

The Broncos deserve a great deal of credit for beginning the season at 5-0.  In the past two weeks, this solid team of newly-acquainted veterans has lost to the two teams that battled in the conference championship game in 2008.  There is no shame in that, but it is clear that Denver has some work to do.  The offense is mediocre and we know its not because of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.  They have played in a high-powered explosive offense before.  The problem may not be Josh McDaniels either.  He knows something about “matriculating the ball up and down the field.”  Even Brandon Stokely has been part of an elite offensive unit.  So who hasn’t been there and done that?

The man who threw 3 interceptions tonite against a team that refused to allow any men in orange jerseys to run the ball: Kyle Orton.

Frankly, I think the Broncos are on the verge of a collapse until they do some things differently.  I thought they were fortunate to beat the Chargers in San Diego.  For all of their success on defense, that game boiled down to a couple of returns by Eddie Royal.  Only the 2007 Bears and Devin Hester can live that way.  This Broncos team simply isn’t cut that way.  The offense managed 3 points tonite — and that was due to Troy Polamalu’s defense on teammate William Gay.  

Denver has to score more.  They have to get Tony Scheffler involved in the offense.  They have to get their running game untracked.  If they don’t, that undersized defense will be forced to stay on the field as much as they did tonite.  That defense can’t do it.  The success of the defense is predicated on the speed of the front 7 and the savvy of the secondary.  That formula was inverted tonite.  The demise of the Broncos was due to the fatigue of the front 7 and the “experience” of the secondary.  The Steelers made Champ Bailey look older than Ty Law.  Did you see the hurdle?

The Broncos don’t have to collapse, they just have to adjust.  I like the Chargers to find a way to win this division.

As for the Steelers, the offense is powerful but sloppy.  Roethlisberger plays like he knows he is playing with house money.  He plays as if he is unconcerned with the consequences of his actions.  The Steelers defense is so ferocious that he is seldom taxed the way another passer might be by miscues.  The Steelers could have scored 40 points if they did not turn the ball over.  Rashard Mendenhall was spared the disgrace of a goal line fumble in the 4th quarter.  And it wasn’t because he didn’t actually fumble — he did.  The referees were probably still trying to make up for that blown call when Jerome Bettis called the coin toss in overtime vs. the Lions.  Ben Roethlisberger had two turnovers: a blind-side fumble and a goal line interception.  Both turnovers were committed when the Steelers were moving the ball with ease.  The second half was a relative walk in the park.  Bruce Arians appeared to have surrendered the play-calling to Ben as the team ran effortlessly without huddling.

Note 1:  It was interesting to hear the announcers talk at the beginning of the 2nd half about how Denver’s frequent movement on defense was causing the Steelers to run the clock down to the final seconds.  That was not the case.  The Steelers were entirely in control based on the change in tempo.  Roethlisberger took his time looking over the defense to maximize the quality of his pre-snap reads.  There was no need to rush.  The no-huddle limited defensive substitutions.  Roethlisberger took his time.  Game over.

Note 2:  When Troy Polamalu is healthy, he makes plays all over the field.  In the 4th quarter of this game (with about 9 minutes remaining), Polamalu stuffed a first down in the backfield with the Broncos pinned down in the own end.  On the very next play, Kyle Orton tried to get some breathing room and the ball was intercepted by Polamalu about 20 yards downfield.

Note 3:  The only guy who really gets open down field against Ike Taylor is Randy Moss (and he needs Tom Brady on the field).  If you don’t have Randy Moss, don’t bother.

If Rashard Mendenhall can secure the ball, this team is going back to where they came from.  Right now, the Colts, Bengals and Steelers (in that order) look to be the class of the AFC.  I don’t know where to put the Patriots.  It’s been so long since they played a quality opponent with a two-dimensional offense.

Closing Note:  Last season, in Week 9, the Steelers played on the road against a team with a new “genius” coach that was oaded with veterans in the secondary, a young quarterback who had yet to throw an interception, a dynamic running game, apass-catching tight end, .  Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of that game by the Washington Redskins, but Jason Campbell threw his first interceptions of the season.  The Redskins, like the Broncos, struggled mightily to score and lost 23-6.

2009 NFL Season: Week 9’s Biggest Losers

The week isn’t over yet, but on Sunday, some teams lost more than a single game.  It’s still early enough that anything can happen, but some teams may be watching their seasons fall apart.  Let’s take a look at the early casualties.

• San Francisco 49ers. You knew the Titans were a dangerous opponent.  With Vince Young quarterbacking and Mike Heimerdinger calling plays, the Titans were sure to rely on a conservative attack  and their ability to pound the rock and force turnovers.  That’s exactly what happened.  The Titans won 34-27 on the road and forced Alex Smith into a sloppy, hurried game.  Frank Gore was dynamic and versatile, but he didn’t dominate the action like he did before the Viking game.  Suddenly, a team that began the season 3-1 with quality wins over division opponents is sitting at 3-5.  The bad news is that first-place Arizona won at Chicago on the strength of a 5 td performance by Kurt Warner (without Anquan Boldin).  The good news is that the Niners only trail them by 2 games — and already have a win at Arizona.  Mike Singletary has changed quarterbacks.  They score more points with Smith, but have less ball security than under Hill.  Next up: the Bears, Packers, Jags, Seahawks.  There is no reason this team can’t be 7-5 in a month.  Book It: If they’re +8 or better in turnovers over that time frame, they’re going to the playoffs.

• New York Giants. If the playoffs began tomorrow, the New York Giants would have the same vantage point as the New York Yankees, and you and I.  They’d be watching from home.  The Giants have lost at home to the Arizona Cardinals and San Diego Chargers.  They’ve lost on the road to the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles.  There really is no shame in losing to any of these teams.  The Saints finished in last place last season, but they’ve been remade and have yet to lose a game this season.  Arizona and the Eagles played in the NFC Championship game last year.  San Diego is a perennial playoff contender.  That the Giants have lost to these teams in consecutive weeks is surprising.  That the Giants have failed to score more than 20 points in any of these games is shocking.  The Chargers have been an enigmatic bunch all season.  They’re 5-3, but could be 7-1 or 2-6.  They’re inconsistent and have been unable to stop the run since the injury to Jamal Williams in September.  All of that sounded like a recipe for resurrection in the Meadowlands.  It didn’t happen.  Instead, the same depleted secondary that was undressed by Drew Brees was dissected by Philip Rivers.  The Giants could do “soul-searching” or any number of things on their bye week, but the answers (like the problems) are on the field.  The execution is simply what it has been — on either side of the ball.  When the sun rises tomorrow, the Giants will be 2 games behind the leader of the NFC East.  Next up: Atlanta, Denver, Dallas, Philadelphia.  This could get much worse before it gets any better.  Book It: If the Giants are not able to defeat second and third tier quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Kyle Orton, the season will be over before they meet host Dallas and Philadelphia in consecutive weeks.

Eli Isn't the Only Man On the Run (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

• Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are kicking themselves tonite for taking the Bengals lightly.  I don’t know why they continue to do that.  It seems they forget that they have a 3-8 record vs. Carson Palmer.  They don’t scare him.  He torches them more regularly and scars them more deeply than any QB in the league.  Really, if they think about it, they’re his bird bitches.  They probably don’t like to admit it, but 8 wins is 8 wins.  The Ravens know they will not be winning the AFC North this season.  They will not be beating the Steelers twice.  They may not even beat them once.  The good news, though, is that they hold tie breakers over the Broncos and Chargers.  Only 1 of them can win the division.  If the Ravens can somehow manage to get to 10 or 11 wins, they can sneak in as the 3rd in the AFC North.  New England, a probably division winner is the only team they’ve lost to in the AFC aside from Cincinnati.  It means their destiny is still in their own hands.  Baltimore can win 6 or 7 of their final 8 games.  If they do, they’re in because of their wins over the AFC West.  Next up: Browns, Colts, Steelers, Packers.  They get Indy and Pitt at home.  Book It: If Baltimore finds a way to win these 4 games and wins out until their Dec. 27th game in Pittsburgh, they’ll beat whomever they play in the Wild Card round.

Teams like the Bears, Texans and Packers lost games yesterday that likely surprised their die-hard fans.  What Bears fan doesn’t expect to beat the Cardinals in Soldier Field?  In all honesty, the Bears simply are not the same team they were at the beginning of the season.  The Bears were fortunate to beat the Steelers this season — and that win has been the cause of all “great expectations” since the signing of Jay Cutler.  It was a quality win.  It was something the Vikings were unable to do.  Still, there hasn’t been much for the Monsters of the Midway to hang their hats on.  Without Urlacher and Hillenmeyer, I don’t expect much.

For all their talent and perennial promise for unleashing potential, the Texans simply cannot be expected to win at Indianapolis.  I expect them to do what they did — play tough, play a little less than smart, and lose.

The Packers simply are not a good team.  They play unevenly and had to be flatter than week-old Coke after playing against Brett Favre under the national spotlight at home last week and then traveling in anonymity to lifeless Raymond James Stadium for a late game vs. a rookie quarterback and a rookie coach.  Teams that lose games like this don’t really belong in the post-season.  Green Bay will find their way out.

Addendum:

• Philadelphia Eagles. Anytime you lose at home to a division rival, it’s painful and it adversely impacts your playoff positioning.  This version of the Eagles is losing games they are supposed to win.  They’ve lost at Oakland…and now this.  If you don’t think the Eagles are going to regret this loss, consider that over the next four weeks, they will be on the road at San Diego, at Chicago and at Atlanta.  The Eagles could lose every one of these games.  The last time the Eagles played on the West Coast, they lost to Oakland.  Against Dallas, the Eagles only ran the ball 23 times.  They didn’t run many plays overall.  Philly only converted 4 of 12 first downs, including some notable failures on 3rd and 4th down with short distances to go.  Jason Peters was injured.  Asante Samuel was roughed up.  Sheldon Brown was toasted.  Brian Westbrook was inactive.  Michael Vick was ineffective (He’s got time.)  McNabb looked like his ribs are still sore…and he also looked like he always looks.

2009 NFL Season: Week 9 – The Picks

No time to waste:

Atlanta rebounds from a tough loss.  Washington revisits another typical loss.  Atlanta 34, Washington 13.

Is Turner back? Or are the Saints showing cracks vs. the run?

Arizona rebounds from a tough loss.  Chicago still searches for a flow.  Arizona 26, Chicago 24.

Baltimore redeems its tough loss to Cincy last month.  Cincy has growing pains. Baltimore 13, Cincinnati 10.

No Owen Daniels.  No Bob Sanders.  Going with Indy.  Indianapolis 39, Houston 34.

Torture, pure torture.  Jacksonville 10, Kansas City 7.

Ecstacy, pure ecstacy.  New England 38, Miami 35.

The Bay of Pigs is back.  Welcome to the world, rook.  Green Bay 30, Tampa Bay 14.

New Orleans big over the schizophrenic Panthers.  Are they running with DeAngelo and Stewart or passing with Mr. Pick Six?  Darren Sharper 21, Carolina 17.

Bell, Thomas, Bush and Evans -- Boom, Boom, Flash and Boom-Boom!

Seattle either wins this game or they fold up and wonder what Jim Mora, Jr. is capable of doing.  Seattle 41, Detroit 0.

Are the Giants really ready for this game?  Are the Chargers ready for anyone other than the Raiders?  Giants 33, San Diego 31.

Remember when the 49ers were abysmal and the Titans were great?  A role reversal here means Mike Singletary is in trouble.  Vince is a tough out.  San Francisco 38, Tennessee 35.

The Dallas Cowboys are overrated.  They’ve been overrated since 1995.  I got the memo when Neil O’Donnell air mailed their last SB win. Philadelphia 44, Dallas 6.

The Denver Broncos will be underrated.  After losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, America will jump off the bandwagon.  Too bad.  Pittsburgh 19, Denver 15.

Some guys I like to “blow up” this week:

QB: Matt Hasselbeck vs. the Lions.  Donovan McNabb vs. the Cowboys.  David Garrard vs. the Chiefs.

RB: Michael Turner vs. the Redskins.  Ronnie and Ricky vs. the Patriots.  Ryan Grant vs. the Bucs.

WR: Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace  vs. the Broncos. DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin vs. the Cowboys. TJ Hush-mazilli (“Championship”) vs. the Lions.