And a shake to Baltimore Raven CB Dominique Foxworth.
Mano-a-mano. Shading Chad to the Inside. Hut-hut-hut!
It’s going to get hectic.
He's Not Going Inside! Damn!
Chad’s Not Done…and Neither is Dominique.
"Gotta Get Up! Quick...Recover!!"
Chad’s thinking, “I did my part, where is the damn ball?”
A perfect throw from Carson Palmer on this play probably goes for a touchdown. That perfect pass never came. The Bengals didn’t need it because this season, they are simply better than the Ravens. Palmer is 8-3 (career) against the Ravens. Chad has always been a big part of that. From what I can see, he hasn’t lost a step — and if he has, Dominique Foxworth won’t find that lost step any time soon.
Like I said when they were 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, and 5-0, and 6-0…” I’m not buyin!”
The Broncos deserve a great deal of credit for beginning the season at 5-0. In the past two weeks, this solid team of newly-acquainted veterans has lost to the two teams that battled in the conference championship game in 2008. There is no shame in that, but it is clear that Denver has some work to do. The offense is mediocre and we know its not because of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. They have played in a high-powered explosive offense before. The problem may not be Josh McDaniels either. He knows something about “matriculating the ball up and down the field.” Even Brandon Stokely has been part of an elite offensive unit. So who hasn’t been there and done that?
The man who threw 3 interceptions tonite against a team that refused to allow any men in orange jerseys to run the ball: Kyle Orton.
Frankly, I think the Broncos are on the verge of a collapse until they do some things differently. I thought they were fortunate to beat the Chargers in San Diego. For all of their success on defense, that game boiled down to a couple of returns by Eddie Royal. Only the 2007 Bears and Devin Hester can live that way. This Broncos team simply isn’t cut that way. The offense managed 3 points tonite — and that was due to Troy Polamalu’s defense on teammate William Gay.
Denver has to score more. They have to get Tony Scheffler involved in the offense. They have to get their running game untracked. If they don’t, that undersized defense will be forced to stay on the field as much as they did tonite. That defense can’t do it. The success of the defense is predicated on the speed of the front 7 and the savvy of the secondary. That formula was inverted tonite. The demise of the Broncos was due to the fatigue of the front 7 and the “experience” of the secondary. The Steelers made Champ Bailey look older than Ty Law. Did you see the hurdle?
The Broncos don’t have to collapse, they just have to adjust. I like the Chargers to find a way to win this division.
As for the Steelers, the offense is powerful but sloppy. Roethlisberger plays like he knows he is playing with house money. He plays as if he is unconcerned with the consequences of his actions. The Steelers defense is so ferocious that he is seldom taxed the way another passer might be by miscues. The Steelers could have scored 40 points if they did not turn the ball over. Rashard Mendenhall was spared the disgrace of a goal line fumble in the 4th quarter. And it wasn’t because he didn’t actually fumble — he did. The referees were probably still trying to make up for that blown call when Jerome Bettis called the coin toss in overtime vs. the Lions. Ben Roethlisberger had two turnovers: a blind-side fumble and a goal line interception. Both turnovers were committed when the Steelers were moving the ball with ease. The second half was a relative walk in the park. Bruce Arians appeared to have surrendered the play-calling to Ben as the team ran effortlessly without huddling.
Note 1: It was interesting to hear the announcers talk at the beginning of the 2nd half about how Denver’s frequent movement on defense was causing the Steelers to run the clock down to the final seconds. That was not the case. The Steelers were entirely in control based on the change in tempo. Roethlisberger took his time looking over the defense to maximize the quality of his pre-snap reads. There was no need to rush. The no-huddle limited defensive substitutions. Roethlisberger took his time. Game over.
Note 2: When Troy Polamalu is healthy, he makes plays all over the field. In the 4th quarter of this game (with about 9 minutes remaining), Polamalu stuffed a first down in the backfield with the Broncos pinned down in the own end. On the very next play, Kyle Orton tried to get some breathing room and the ball was intercepted by Polamalu about 20 yards downfield.
Note 3: The only guy who really gets open down field against Ike Taylor is Randy Moss (and he needs Tom Brady on the field). If you don’t have Randy Moss, don’t bother.
If Rashard Mendenhall can secure the ball, this team is going back to where they came from. Right now, the Colts, Bengals and Steelers (in that order) look to be the class of the AFC. I don’t know where to put the Patriots. It’s been so long since they played a quality opponent with a two-dimensional offense.
Closing Note: Last season, in Week 9, the Steelers played on the road against a team with a new “genius” coach that was oaded with veterans in the secondary, a young quarterback who had yet to throw an interception, a dynamic running game, apass-catching tight end, . Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of that game by the Washington Redskins, but Jason Campbell threw his first interceptions of the season. The Redskins, like the Broncos, struggled mightily to score and lost 23-6.
The week isn’t over yet, but on Sunday, some teams lost more than a single game. It’s still early enough that anything can happen, but some teams may be watching their seasons fall apart. Let’s take a look at the early casualties.
San Francisco 49ers. You knew the Titans were a dangerous opponent. With Vince Young quarterbacking and Mike Heimerdinger calling plays, the Titans were sure to rely on a conservative attack and their ability to pound the rock and force turnovers. That’s exactly what happened. The Titans won 34-27 on the road and forced Alex Smith into a sloppy, hurried game. Frank Gore was dynamic and versatile, but he didn’t dominate the action like he did before the Viking game. Suddenly, a team that began the season 3-1 with quality wins over division opponents is sitting at 3-5. The bad news is that first-place Arizona won at Chicago on the strength of a 5 td performance by Kurt Warner (without Anquan Boldin). The good news is that the Niners only trail them by 2 games — and already have a win at Arizona. Mike Singletary has changed quarterbacks. They score more points with Smith, but have less ball security than under Hill. Next up: the Bears, Packers, Jags, Seahawks. There is no reason this team can’t be 7-5 in a month. Book It: If they’re +8 or better in turnovers over that time frame, they’re going to the playoffs.
New York Giants. If the playoffs began tomorrow, the New York Giants would have the same vantage point as the New York Yankees, and you and I. They’d be watching from home. The Giants have lost at home to the Arizona Cardinals and San Diego Chargers. They’ve lost on the road to the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles. There really is no shame in losing to any of these teams. The Saints finished in last place last season, but they’ve been remade and have yet to lose a game this season. Arizona and the Eagles played in the NFC Championship game last year. San Diego is a perennial playoff contender. That the Giants have lost to these teams in consecutive weeks is surprising. That the Giants have failed to score more than 20 points in any of these games is shocking. The Chargers have been an enigmatic bunch all season. They’re 5-3, but could be 7-1 or 2-6. They’re inconsistent and have been unable to stop the run since the injury to Jamal Williams in September. All of that sounded like a recipe for resurrection in the Meadowlands. It didn’t happen. Instead, the same depleted secondary that was undressed by Drew Brees was dissected by Philip Rivers. The Giants could do “soul-searching” or any number of things on their bye week, but the answers (like the problems) are on the field. The execution is simply what it has been — on either side of the ball. When the sun rises tomorrow, the Giants will be 2 games behind the leader of the NFC East. Next up: Atlanta, Denver, Dallas, Philadelphia. This could get much worse before it gets any better. Book It: If the Giants are not able to defeat second and third tier quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Kyle Orton, the season will be over before they meet host Dallas and Philadelphia in consecutive weeks.
Eli Isn't the Only Man On the Run (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)
Baltimore Ravens.The Ravens are kicking themselves tonite for taking the Bengals lightly. I don’t know why they continue to do that. It seems they forget that they have a 3-8 record vs. Carson Palmer. They don’t scare him. He torches them more regularly and scars them more deeply than any QB in the league. Really, if they think about it, they’re his bird bitches. They probably don’t like to admit it, but 8 wins is 8 wins. The Ravens know they will not be winning the AFC North this season. They will not be beating the Steelers twice. They may not even beat them once. The good news, though, is that they hold tie breakers over the Broncos and Chargers. Only 1 of them can win the division. If the Ravens can somehow manage to get to 10 or 11 wins, they can sneak in as the 3rd in the AFC North. New England, a probably division winner is the only team they’ve lost to in the AFC aside from Cincinnati. It means their destiny is still in their own hands. Baltimore can win 6 or 7 of their final 8 games. If they do, they’re in because of their wins over the AFC West. Next up: Browns, Colts, Steelers, Packers. They get Indy and Pitt at home. Book It: If Baltimore finds a way to win these 4 games and wins out until their Dec. 27th game in Pittsburgh, they’ll beat whomever they play in the Wild Card round.
Teams like the Bears, Texans and Packers lost games yesterday that likely surprised their die-hard fans. What Bears fan doesn’t expect to beat the Cardinals in Soldier Field? In all honesty, the Bears simply are not the same team they were at the beginning of the season. The Bears were fortunate to beat the Steelers this season — and that win has been the cause of all “great expectations” since the signing of Jay Cutler. It was a quality win. It was something the Vikings were unable to do. Still, there hasn’t been much for the Monsters of the Midway to hang their hats on. Without Urlacher and Hillenmeyer, I don’t expect much.
For all their talent and perennial promise for unleashing potential, the Texans simply cannot be expected to win at Indianapolis. I expect them to do what they did — play tough, play a little less than smart, and lose.
The Packers simply are not a good team. They play unevenly and had to be flatter than week-old Coke after playing against Brett Favre under the national spotlight at home last week and then traveling in anonymity to lifeless Raymond James Stadium for a late game vs. a rookie quarterback and a rookie coach. Teams that lose games like this don’t really belong in the post-season. Green Bay will find their way out.
Addendum:
Philadelphia Eagles. Anytime you lose at home to a division rival, it’s painful and it adversely impacts your playoff positioning. This version of the Eagles is losing games they are supposed to win. They’ve lost at Oakland…and now this. If you don’t think the Eagles are going to regret this loss, consider that over the next four weeks, they will be on the road at San Diego, at Chicago and at Atlanta. The Eagles could lose every one of these games. The last time the Eagles played on the West Coast, they lost to Oakland. Against Dallas, the Eagles only ran the ball 23 times. They didn’t run many plays overall. Philly only converted 4 of 12 first downs, including some notable failures on 3rd and 4th down with short distances to go. Jason Peters was injured. Asante Samuel was roughed up. Sheldon Brown was toasted. Brian Westbrook was inactive. Michael Vick was ineffective (He’s got time.) McNabb looked like his ribs are still sore…and he also looked like he always looks.
Atlanta rebounds from a tough loss. Washington revisits another typical loss. Atlanta 34, Washington 13.
Is Turner back? Or are the Saints showing cracks vs. the run?
Arizona rebounds from a tough loss. Chicago still searches for a flow. Arizona 26, Chicago 24.
Baltimore redeems its tough loss to Cincy last month. Cincy has growing pains. Baltimore 13, Cincinnati 10.
No Owen Daniels. No Bob Sanders. Going with Indy. Indianapolis 39, Houston 34.
Torture, pure torture. Jacksonville 10, Kansas City 7.
Ecstacy, pure ecstacy. New England 38, Miami 35.
The Bay of Pigs is back. Welcome to the world, rook. Green Bay 30, Tampa Bay 14.
New Orleans big over the schizophrenic Panthers. Are they running with DeAngelo and Stewart or passing with Mr. Pick Six? Darren Sharper 21, Carolina 17.
Bell, Thomas, Bush and Evans -- Boom, Boom, Flash and Boom-Boom!
Seattle either wins this game or they fold up and wonder what Jim Mora, Jr. is capable of doing. Seattle 41, Detroit 0.
Are the Giants really ready for this game? Are the Chargers ready for anyone other than the Raiders? Giants 33, San Diego 31.
Remember when the 49ers were abysmal and the Titans were great? A role reversal here means Mike Singletary is in trouble. Vince is a tough out. San Francisco 38, Tennessee 35.
The Dallas Cowboys are overrated. They’ve been overrated since 1995. I got the memo when Neil O’Donnell air mailed their last SB win. Philadelphia 44, Dallas 6.
The Denver Broncos will be underrated. After losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, America will jump off the bandwagon. Too bad. Pittsburgh 19, Denver 15.
Some guys I like to “blow up” this week:
QB: Matt Hasselbeck vs. the Lions. Donovan McNabb vs. the Cowboys. David Garrard vs. the Chiefs.
RB: Michael Turner vs. the Redskins. Ronnie and Ricky vs. the Patriots. Ryan Grant vs. the Bucs.
WR: Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace vs. the Broncos. DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin vs. the Cowboys. TJ Hush-mazilli (“Championship”) vs. the Lions.
Some games are already taking on a playoff atmosphere. The Week 8 Falcons-Saints game on Monday night was one such game. The one thing that is painfully clear to me (and probably to the Atlanta Falcons general manager) is that the Falcons really miss Harry Douglas. If you don’t live in Atlanta or didn’t go to Louisville, you’ve probably never heard of him. Douglas is a speedy wideout who was injured and lost for the season during pre-season. He had two of his best games in 2008 vs. Chicago (5 catches, 96 yards) and Carolina (4 catches, 92 yards). Douglas is a young guy, but he can stretch the field and create space for Roddy White. That’s what’s been missing as teams exploit the absence of Jerrious Norwood and the presence of Michael Jenkins.
Next week, we’re going to see who gets off the mat…and who rolls over.
A month ago, if you told someone that the Chargers had the remotest chance of beating the Giants in New York, you’d have been run out of town. Yet, after overpowering losses at New Orleans, home vs. the Cardinals and down in Philadelphia, the Giants may have shrunk the betting line to 2 or 3 points. The Chargers are still a shell of their former selves, but anything is possible — especially in a game where Philip Rivers and Eli Manning will be playing for bragging rights.
Around Christmas time, when the Arizona Cardinals get the final confirmation that their 9-7 record is not good enough to get into the playoffs, they’re going to be kicking themselves for losing at home to Carolina. They’re going on the road to Chicago. The Cardinals have the perfect personnel to throttle the Bears all up and down Lake Shore Drive. But, if Kurt Warner has his mind on other things, they can lose just like Cleveland did last week. And if they do that, they’ll be watching the 49ers in the post-season.
Dallas travels to Philadelphia for what should be a classic confrontation of high-powered offenses. The Cowboys have proven to have a stronger preference for running than the Eagles. Too often Andy Reid get enamored with the beauty and grace of their passing game. If that happens again this week, Dallas will leave town in first place.
The Miami Dolphins have had an interesting few weeks. They lost a tough, tough game to the New Orleans Saints. The offense could only muster 3 points vs. the Jets for much of the game, but the special teams unit exploded behind Ted Ginn, Jr. The New England Patriots are coming off a bye and this could be the end of the ride.
The Baltimore Ravens play at the Cinncinati Bengals. This is a game of the week candidate. The Bengals have a one game lead over the Ravens and have already won in Baltimore. A win here forces the Ravens to turn their attention to beating the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers twice…and they haven’t played this season. If Baltimore loses, the chances of them making the playoffs, to me, drop considerably.
Don’t the Texans have something to prove? When are they going to prove it? They get to play the Colts in Indy this week and prove they can run and pass and stop the run and slow down the pass. If they can’t do it, Indy gets to 8-0 and holds all the cards. If Houston can find a way, a much deserved bye week is just around the corner.
NOTE: It had occurred to me that very little was probably said with respect to “race” last week as Mike Singletary’s 49ers faced off against Jim Caldwell’s Colts. The NFL still has a long way to go, but it is worth noting that 5 of the last 6 teams to compete in the Super Bowl have had either a Black head coach or general manager. The lone exception to this new trend is the New England Patriots.
The Raiders, Rams, Bills and Browns are all on a bye week. Television programmers have never been so happy!
Monday night — Steelers vs. Broncos. That’s a big one, even though the Ravens subjected Denver to an old-fashioned AFC North chin checking. Denver will show up to play the Steelers and their fans will be juiced. This game will get all the hype that probably should go to two teams who’ve already outdueled these two (Baltimore and Cincinnati).
Ed Reed set the tone for yesterday’s Week 8 win over the Denver Broncos with this crunching blow on rookie running back, Knowshon Moreno. The Ravens were waiting on Denver’s screen game all day long. This play resulted in the game’s first turnover. The Ravens went on to win 30-7.
THE ANATOMY OF A FUMBLE.
Loose Ball -- Inside the Blue Circle
Here it comes. The breeze before the boom!!
BREEZE — The read by Reed. ”Screen, screen, screen!”
The Denver Broncos are not the real deal. I said it last week — and gave a thousand reasons why. I was willing to keep an open mind for a few weeks, but they are who I thought they were. The Ravens took Denver’s lunch money, punched them in the mouth, stuffed them in the locker and went to the prom with Little Ms. Bronco. The Broncos can prove a lot next Monday night if they can beat the Steelers at home. For now, they’ll need to figure out why they were throttled coming off a bye. I bet the Ravens are even more pissed at the referees from that New England game.
The New York Giants are sinking. They’ve lost 3 times and been beaten up each time. When the Saints did it, the loss was attributed to the lack of healthy defenders on the Giants. Then the Cardinals flew to New York and beat down the offense. Yesterday, the Eagles dominated in all 3 phases and made Eli look like that guy he’s looked like in every season that wasn’t 2007. You know, the guy with the 80 something QB rating who throws interceptions all over the yard. The Giants have a ton of things to fix and don’t have that aura any more. 3 losses in the conference mean there are on the outside looking in.
The Arizona Cardinals are killing me. They can’t stand prosperity. This is a critical stretch for them. They began by winning at Seattle and New York — then they lose at home to the PANTHERS!?! You’ve got to be kidding. Last week, the Panthers offensive coordinator was my poster-boy for throwing games. He figured out (at least for a day) that this team is better when DeAngelo and Jonathan roll with about 18 to 20 touches each…they’re much better than when Jake throws for 300 yards. If Carolina can run more often, they’ll win. If Arizona can remember who they are on game days, they should do better as well. When they lose that first road playoff game, they’ll be able to look back on this loss as the one that put them in that predicement.
Congrats to Brett Favre and the Vikings. (Ewww…that’s hard to write.) They deserve the love — but until the Packers learn how to defend, they’ll continue to lose to quality opponents. Percy Harvin is the next, “Did you see that?!?” Guy. When you give up that many points at home, you’ve got no shot. Adrian Peterson got his touches this week. Last week, he managed only 18 carries and 69 yards. Four touchdown passes — again. Wow!
The 49ers are within a hair’s breadth of being 5-2 (or better) with wins over Minnesota and Indianapolis. They’re not experienced enough or talented enough at QB to have pulled out some of their games (at Houston), but they really get down. The Colts are like a machine — even when they struggle. Well done.
As a New Yorker, I was hoping that the Dolphins would come out flat after playing the Saints. I know they hate the Jets, so I guess I should have recognized they’d find a way — like the Giants did vs. Philly. Exactly…Didn’t happen there, why should it have happened here? I thought the Jets would hold the Dolphins to 3 points — and I was looking like a genius when this game was 6-3 late in the 3rd quarter. Then Ted Ginn, Jr. started channeling Eddie Royal and bang-bang-bang. The Dolphins scored 21 points without their offense. Game over. The good news: as I said a few weeks ago, New Yorkers need not overreact to some tough games from Mark Sanchez. He’s young, but he’s the real deal. He’s a player and he didn’t cost the Jets the game yesterday. Have faith — and get those special teams fixed.
Chicago pummeled Cleveland. What else is new?
St. Louis beat Detroit. Too bad Megatron is on the shelf!! I thought he’d play and picked the Lions to win by 2.
San Diego beat the Raiders. If Roger Goodell is serious (and we know he’s not because of how he handled Matt Jones), wouldn’t Tom Cable be on the verge of losing his job? This is an embarassment to the league and the franchise. I’m not sure what Andy Reid owed Al Davis before the Eagles lost out there, but the debt has been cancelled. Will the Raiders win again? Who still owes Al Davis?
I’m going to tell you right now — I’m not buying Dallas either. They beat a banged up Falcon team — a terrible Seattle team and they’ve lost to the Giants and Broncos. They even played one of Tampa’s most interesting games of the season. Would you buy that? Dallas still operates on a “smoke and mirrors” basis.
Buffalo had a chance to tie the Texans at 4-4 and hold the tie-breaker. Instead, the Bills dropped to 3-5 and are gone (in my book) from meaningful playoff contention. They’re the weakest overall team in the division. (I know they just beat the Jets in New York.) The Texans are just trying to keep it going. Nice to see Ryan Moats do what he did. What he was forced to deal with this summer was unconscionable. His case generated more hate comments than any other post I’ve ever had. Congratulations to Ryan and his family. This “game” is small consolation, but it is still nice to see when preparation grabs opportunity and kisses her fully on the mouth.
Didn’t every one in the nation, except for Jeff Fisher and Kerry Collins, know that it was time for Vince Young to take over the reins in Tennessee? Back in Week 3 when I wrote in detail of how Collins was “On the Verge of Getting Exposed,” I noted that the Titans were not much better than a 10-13 point team. With Young, the Titans may not have a traditional look, but they are simply more formidable in the run game and with play action. Vince Young is a play maker. Collins can only take what the defense gives him. New England gave him nothing and he took nothing. Same with the Jets. Bud Adams did the right thing, albeit 2 months too late.
Picks Record for Week 8: 8-4* (Made picks before Young was announced the starter in Jax-Tenn game.)
The season is humming along. Sadly, though, the injuries are really beginning to pile up. Last week, the Jets playmaker Leon Washington was lost to a fractured fibula. I’ve enjoyed his game since he was at Florida State. I wish him a speedy recovery. That goes for all the guys who went down including Washington’s Chris Cooley (the guy who I think should be the centerpiece of their offense), Jermichael Finley, Will Allen (whose injury may have been the real reason the Saints climbed back in that game), and William Gay.
What? Gay wasn’t injured? He was just posterized. Having taken the week to consider it, I still can’t think of any other Steeler DB who has been run over quite like that. I wonder how long William will have to wait to get his uniform back. In all seriousness, Gay is a hard working player who gives 100% whenever I’ve seen him play. That could have happened to anyone. There really isn’t any shame in getting flattened like a tackle dummy by Adrian Peterson. It will be William’s job to be prepared next time.
Is it wrong of me, a huge Steeler fan, to post that video? I’m just trying to be fair and balanced.
Let’s get it on.
Game 1. Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens. This game will make me a believer. I don’t love the Ravens, but if Denver can beat them in their own building (with both teams coming off byes), I will buy what the Broncos are selling. After Denver beat San Diego, I said I’d wait until they played Pittsburgh. I’m going to go a week early and put the weight on Baltimore. If Baltimore loses this game, they’ll drop to 3-4 overall with 3 conference losses. Given that they have yet to play the Steelers and still have to travel to Cincinnati, a loss here means the Ravens would be fighting an uphill battle to get to 11-5…and that’s what its going to take to get into the playoffs if you’re 3rd in the AFC North. The Ravens should be desperate. Baltimore 21, Denver 17.
Game 2. Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills.Believe it or not, the winner of this game will be on a 3-game winning streak in the AFC. The Bills are sporting wins over pathetic, listless Carolina and the Jets. The Texans just beat a hungry 49er team in the midst of some confusion at the quarterback position. Vernon Davis hit the Texans for 3 touchdowns. The Bills don’t have tight ends who can stay healthy, let alone score 3 touchdowns. If the weather is nasty, don’t be surprised if Buffalo pulls this out. Houston 16, Buffalo 10.
Game 3. Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears.The Bears are missing a ton of injured talent on defense. The Browns are missing a ton of unsigned talent on offense. I like the Have-Nots over the Never-Hads. Chicago 29, Cleveland 12.
Game 4. Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys.I picked the Cowboys to beat Atlanta last week. How could they possibly lose to the miserable Seahawks? Isn’t the newly minted DeMarcus Ware going to write checks all over Matt Hasselbeck’s ribs? I think so. Miles Austin 28, Seattle 14.
Game 5. Miami Dolphins at New York Jets.This have been ideal for the Jets if Miami had beaten New Orleans. The Jets are still embarrassed about getting their manhood stir fried by the Dolphins a few weeks ago. The Dolphins are salty about losing a game they led by 21 points. Without Will Allen, they were defenseless against the Saints. With Will Allen, the Jets were still able to move the ball and draw the Dolphins into one of the better played games of the season a few weeks ago. I don’t think this game will be as exciting, but I like the Jets. New York Jets 17, Miami Dolphins 3.
Game 6. San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts. This could simply get very ugly, very fast. Last week, Frank Gore had only a handful of carries. This week, he’ll need a boatload just to keep things from getting out of hand. Atlanta and Houston have dispelled the notion that the 49ers are rootin’ tootin’ gunslingers masquerading as an NFL defense. On Sunday, all water guns run dry. Indianapolis 48, San Francisco 17.
Game 7. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles.Here are two teams stuck in the midst of being wholly unimpressive. The Giants are so unimpressive, I picked them to lose at home to the Cardinals — knowing full well how the Cardinals play when they make cross-country trips. The Eagles lost to the Raiders two weeks ago and allowed a season-high 17 points to the Redskins. There are no winners here — and this game may be as poorly played as it has been in years. Philadelphia 19, New York 17.
Game 8. St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions. Speaking of games that are liable to be poorly played. Steven Jackson and Kevin Smith could provide sparks. Who will provide the pillows? Detroit 24, St. Louis 22.
Game 9. Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers. Remember when this game meant something? I don’t. It will only be meaningful if the Raiders can do what they should have done Week 1 — beat the Chargers. The Chargers are probably worse than they were in Week 1. The Raiders have to be better — don’t they? San Diego 27, Oakland 7.
Game 10. Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans. Another stinker. Can the Titans take another bye week. It’s time for Vince. But, before that, it’s time for Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jags have the better team — as long as they’re not flying to Seattle. Jacksonville 37, Tennessee 17.
Game 11. Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers. The moment you’ll all be waiting for. The way Favre has been playing, he should continue to do well and make this a thrilling affair. This game is sure to be infinitely more emotional than the game in Minnesota. The Packers and Aaron Rodgers will have the suppor of the fans. Brett will get the jeers. I like the Packers. Green Bay 31, Minnesota 21.
Game 12. Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals.Another clunker. Arizona should win this game easily. Arizona 38, Carolina 20.
Game 13. Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints. More on this feast closer to Monday night. Enjoy!!
ADDENDUM: I wrote back in Week 3 that it was time for the Titans to begin to look to Vince Young. The writing was on the wall then. I’m sure Bud Adams saw it. Jeff Fisher still can’t see it. I would not have picked the Jaguars to win that game had the start of VY been announced earlier in the week. The Jaguars are maddeningly mediocre and I do what I can to routinely pick against them.
After going 5-8 last week, it couldn’t get any worse could it. Let me get this out of the way first. I was wrong about Miami being able to hang on and beat the Saints. I was wrong about Chicago at Cincinnati…really, really wrong. Sorry Cedric. I was a believer at the end of the preseason. I just slipped. Next time you all are in New York to collect rent from the Jets, holler!
I wasn’t perfect this week, but I was better. Heading into the Monday night game featuring the heavily-favored Eagles vs. the seriously-sedated Redskins, I had a record of 7-5. Let’s get to the good.
The Classics
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Minnesota Vikings 17. I have maintained two things since the beginning of Brett Favre’s flirtations with the Vikings…that this team is going to be a tough out in the post-season and that if the Vikings play teams that Adrian Peterson does not dominate – teams that force Brett Favre to beat them, he’s not going to do it. I don’t dislike Favre. For me it’s simpler than that. Since 1997, he hasn’t won more than one playoff game in any season. To play in a Super Bowl, the Vikings will need to win 2 or 3 playoff games. The Steelers allowed 69 rushing yards to Adrian Peterson and the game was put in the hands of Favre to win or lose.
He threw 51 passes. The chances of losing increase exponentially for most QBs after 45 passes (at least in the post-season). Favre, for much of the game, did a masterful job of mixing up plays. The Vikings attacked short and deep. There are were a few plays where only good fortune and a very strong sun prevented Percy Harvin from dominating the action. He is a very impressive young player. The hamstring injury to Bernard Berrian significantly impacted the game. Berrian did drop an easy pass, but he was otherwise having his way with William Gay. Berrian’s speed forced Gay to play off — leaving room for underneath routes. When Berrian went out of the game, Favre was reduced to throwing to Harvin, Sidney Rice (another great game) and Visanthe Shincoe.
The Steelers still have issues. Rashard Mendenhall is a fumbler — until proven otherwise. He’s not a nice back who happens to fumble. He’s not a young power back with great speed and agility who happens to fumble. He’s a fumbler. He is a player who jeopardizes possessions each time he touches the ball. After his Red Zone fumble yesterday, Coach Mike Tomlin went to former Viking Mewelde Moore to hold down the fort. Moore, of course, is not a powerful between the tackles runner, but he is not a fumbler.
After going 5-8 last week (first week that bad in years), I am wondering if I’m in over my head. Am I being too stubborn about my contempt for the Patriots and the Broncos? Am I underestimating the truism that Houston is the new Seattle and that Seattle is the new St. Louis? I’m rolling the dice — full steam ahead.
13-0 or bust!!!
New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in London). Does New England really need the assistance from the NFL of making this a “road” game? The Pats will win and the Bucs will play another tough road game away from sunny Raymond James Stadium. New England 95, Tampa Bay 0.
Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns. I like the Packers to feast during this part of their schedule. One week after playing the Lions, the Packers may be heading to Bali after this game. Green Bay 31, Cleveland 3.
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans. Aren’t the Texans the Bengals of the South. Aren’t they a team that cannot stand prosperity? Aren’t the 49ers coming to town with Frank Gore? San Francisco 30, Houston 24.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. Game of the Week 1. The Steelers are playing without Aaron Smith. He’s the most important cog in their run defense. When he missed games in 2007 vs. Jacksonville, the Steel Curtain was shredded twice in a span of 3 weeks. Adrian Peterson should have a big game if he runs to the right. I don’t think it’ll be enough. I’ll take Ben, Hines and Santonio. Pittsburgh 45, Minnesota 42.
Indianapolis Colts vs. St. Louis Rams.Curse the Scheduling Gods! This just isn’t fair. Indianapolis 48, St. Louis 16.
San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs.If I’m the owner of the Chargers, this game tells me all I need to know about Norv Turner. (Okay, I should already know.) This is the first must win game of the season for the Chargers. Last week was bad enough, but it wasn’t fatal. The Colts won 9 in a row in 2008, only to lose to the Chargers in San Diego during the wildcard round. San Diego can get off the map, but not after this week. Do or die. San Diego 23, Kansas City 21.
Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers.There will be four talented running backs in this game: DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart for the Panthers and Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson for the Bills. There will be two awful quarterbacks and two beat up defenses. Both teams are coming off dramatic wins against division rivals. The Panthers have the better backs and are playing at home. Buffalo could give up 300 yards for the 2nd consecutive week. Carolina 28, Buffalo 13.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders.The Jets NEVER (they did once in 2003) win in Oakland. In 2008, the Jets had a nice little winning streak where they won 7 of 8. The lone loss? At Oakland. In 2002, the Jets went 9-7, made the playoffs and won a wildcard game 41-0 vs. the Colts. That season, the Jets lost at Oakland twice. If the Jets win this game, it will be a minor miracle. Oakland 17, New York Jets 10.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys.Remember when Dallas found its defense last year against Tampa Bay and won at home in a shocker. This will be that game all over again. Wade is going to win this one with scheme and anticipation. Only Romo can lose it. If he’s smart enough to remember down and distance — and attack Brian Williams’ replacement, the Cowboys should win. Dallas 38, Atlanta 35.
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals.In the Cedric Benson Payback Bowl, I like the Bears to replicate the success of the Texans through the air. The Bears have a pass-catching tight end and running back capable of doing damage to the Bengals. If Olson and Forte can replicate Daniels and Slaton, it will a nice little road trip from the windy city. The absence of Antwaan Odom means Jay Cutler may have time to handle his business. Chicago 26, Cincinnati 23.
New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins.Game of the Week 2. I hope Miami comes out in the orange uniforms and hands Jennifer Lopez a microphone. This is going to be a great game. The contrast in styles, alone, is enough to provide a clinic for casual fans. The Saints, of course, are not a pass-only team. They can run the ball as well. The only difficulties for the Saints, in fact, have come in games where they were encouraged to run by the defense. The Saints required 3 quarters to dispose of the Bills and Jets (AFC East teams like Miami). Other games where the Saints run game was the focus were easily over by halftime. I like Miami’s power running and deep play action passing. Miami 28, New Orleans 27.
Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants.Kurt Warner will come back to town with ball security on his mind. He’ll also be thinking about torching the Giants the way that Drew Brees did last week. I like his chances. I like Arizona’s defense against the run. This is THE toughest stretch of games for the Cardinals. A win here, following a big win in Seattle, should serve notice to the conference that Arizona could be legit. Arizona 34, New York 28.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins.This game couldn’t come at a better time for the Eagles. It couldn’t come at a worse time for the Redskins. Washington, though, may want its hand at beating teams with winning records since facing winless teams didn’t work out so well. If the Raiders could right the ship against the Eagles, so can Washington. The problem is that the Titanic can only sink once. Philadelphia 44, Washington 14.
