Hillary Clinton’s Mythical Victory

Just to square the facts in evidence here:
  • Clinton, in the months leading up to the March 4 primaries in Ohio and Texas, held large double digit leads (20 points and higher) in ALL polls.
  • Clinton needed to win Ohio and Texas by large margins in order to close the “Pledged Delegate” gap between her and her opponent.
  • Clinton’s lead in Ohio and Texas dwindled from 20+ points to 8 percentage points and 3 percentage points respectively. In addition, her opponent won the Texas Caucus.
  • Clinton did not gain ground in terms of pledged delegates. Instead, she narrowly won two states she long expected to win by large margins.
  • The pundits think this is a big deal because Ms. Clinton has proven the ability to win “big states,” though she’s not won them decisively.
  • Democrats acknowledge that the South and Plains States where Ms. Clinton’s opponent has been dominant is the principle area of weakness for the party against Republican nominee John McCain.
  • Ms. Clinton asserts she “won” Michigan even though she ran against “uncommitted” which garnered a whopping 40 PERCENT of the vote.
  • Ms. Clinton asserts she “won” Florida even though she essentially ran unopposed in that state as well.
  • The outcome of last night’s events is being reported as “momentum” for Clinton, when the actual TREND of support moved away from her over the past two months – even in Ohio and Texas.
  • The margin of victory in last night’s primary is unlikely to make Pennsylvania (or any other state) decisive for Ms. Clinton.

    I suspect that the pundits are simply trying to capitalize on the incredible buzz this campaign has generated. CNN’s viewership (in the 25-54 year-old group) is up 150% over last year according to Crain’s New York. It’s the first time that CNN has supplanted Fox News in 6 years.

    Fox’ viewership is only up 10%.

    I believe this is what they call “spin.” This doesn’t seem to be much more than the outcome of pre-game plans by talking heads to hype the fight – even though it’s mathematical outcome has already been decided. From the perspective of the pledged delegate count, the balance of this campaign will be akin to watching a fight on TiVo. The body has been picked up off the canvas. The arena is empty – but for those glued to the press coverage, it’s still a live event.

  • clipped from www.reuters.com

    Opinion polls show Clinton and Obama in close races in both Ohio and Texas — the biggest prizes on Tuesday.

    A cautious-sounding Obama told reporters on his campaign plane that he thought the race would be “very, very tight.”

    “We started 20 points behind in Texas and Ohio,” he said on the flight from Houston to San Antonio. “We’ve closed the gap but whether it’s going to be enough to actually win is going to depend on what turnout looks like in both states.”

    “What my head tells me is we’ve got a very sizable delegate lead that is going to be hard to overcome,” he added, when asked if the race would continue on through Pennsylvania.

      blog it

    2 comments

    1. I woke up this morning to see a fellow Highbrid Nation writer reporting that Hillary has won the Ohio and Texas primaries and how this is getting bad. And like him I feel like this battle between Obama and Hillary has went on too long and now they are in danger of hurting the party by allowing McCain to take shots at them while they are dealing with each other. Howard Dean should step in and say “Look, Obama is going to be the canidate and Hillary you can be his running mate if you choose”…I know I know that would never happen but a guy can dream right?

    2. I’m not a Democrat, but I think they’ll have a problem if they don’t win the South and the Plains States. Obama’s numbers against the Republicans in big states are solid.

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