NFL Predictions – Week 10

Last week, I decided to get up off the prognostication mat and lift my percentage above a profitable, but still pedestrian 62%. I went 10-4 straight up – and surprising loses by the Falcons and Cowboys prevented an even better record. I’ve changed my attitude and I’m picking with power!! 9 in the books, 8 to go. We’re at the midway point and the second half of the season begins today.

NFL Lines For Week 10 – NFL Football Line Week Ten
NFL Game Lines 11/12 & 11/13, 2006

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
11/12 1:00 ET At Miami -1.5 Kansas City 40
11/12 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -10 Houston 37
11/12 1:00 ET San Diego -1 At Cincinnati 48
11/12 1:00 ET At Atlanta -8 Cleveland 41.5
11/12 1:00 ET Baltimore -7 At Tennessee 37.5
11/12 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -12.5 Buffalo 44.5
11/12 4:15 ET At Pittsburgh -6 New Orleans 45
11/12 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -7.5 Washington 41.5
11/12 8:15 ET At NY Giants -1 Chicago 37.5
11/12 1:00 ET At Minnesota -5.5 Green Bay 39
11/12 1:00 ET At New England -10.5 NY Jets 38
11/12 1:00 ET At Detroit -6 San Francisco 46
11/12 4:05 ET Denver -8.5 At Oakland 33.5
11/12 4:15 ET At Seattle -3 St. Louis 43.5
11/12 4:15 ET Dallas -6.5 At Arizona

Monday Night Football Line

11/13 8:30 ET At Carolina -9.5 Tampa Bay 37

First up…the team that I’ve been feeling ever since they lost to the Steelers: the Kansas City Chiefs.  I know the Chiefs have really hurt their fans in the past few years.  Not too long ago, this team was 13-3 and hosting the Colts in a playoff game.  Since that game, the Chiefs have not met the lofty expectations of the franchise.  The defense has struggled…it still struggles.  What has not been an area of concern, though, has been the offense.  Even without 4,000 yard passer Trent Green, the Chiefs have been able to put up points with consistency.  Larry Johnson is what is known affectionately as “A Grown Ass Man” – and he reduces the competition to child’s play in most games.  The Dolphins looked great at Chicago last week and appear to have worked some things out.  I don’t have a read on the character and focus of this team, but they are positioned to make a run.  I believe Nick Saban probably did alot of preparation for this game (as well as the Chicago game) during the Dolphins bye week.  I think this may be Damon Huard’s first rough patch.  Miami 31, Kansas City 30.

Jacksonville played the Texans not too long ago and lost 27-7 in a shocker.  The Texans are not as bad as folks think they are – they were impressive in a loss to the Giants.  Still, the Jaguars appear to have found their stride.  They’ve beaten the Eagles and Titans in impressive fashion the past two weeks.  Jacksonville 31, Houston 14.

The inconsistent Bengals have been the bane of my existence for the past month.  Home today against the Chargers and their overrated, injury-depleted defense.  The key to this game for me will be Philip Rivers’ ability to make plays and the inability of the Bengals to stop the unstoppable LaDainian Tomlinson.  I like the Chargers on the road in a high scoring game.  San Diego 38, Cincinnati 31.

If the Falcons were going on the road to Cleveland, I’d take the Browns.  I’m not impressed with the Falcons.  They’ve had compelling wins over struggling teams with great reputations (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati) and a huge loss to the Lions.  This suggests something is amiss in ATL.  I think a Dome may be just what Charlie Frye needs to home in on his many receiving targets.  These are tough matchups on the corners for the Falcons (Jurevicius and Braylon Edwards + Kellen Winslow).  I think the Falcons will struggle again today.  I’m taking the under.  Atlanta 22, Cleveland 17.

Can the Ravens exact a just measure of revenge against the Titans on behalf of Steve McNair?  They’d better.  Baltimore 31, Tennessee 3.

The Colts are having a nice run through their old foes in the AFC East.  They’re roughest patch has been, surprisingly, against the New York Jets.  The Bills, I believe pose similar problems – but the absence of Willis McGahee means the Bills will need big games from wideouts Lee Evans and #3 Roscoe Parrish.  I like the speed of the Bills LB’s in covering Indy’s stretch play, while their DB’s (Clements and McGee) should do well against Harrison and Wayne.  I’m looking for a low-scoring game with Indy winning late.  Indianapolis 17, Buffalo 16.

I’m done picking the Steelers this season.  Drew Brees threw for over 350 yards against the Ravens and the Bucs.  The Steelers just benched CB Ike Taylor: the same Ike Taylor who signed a multi-year extension and is widely regarded as the team’s best cover corner.  I suspect this will be a high-scoring game if the Steelers can find a way to punch it in.  New Orleans 40, Pittsburgh 28.  Ouch.

Philadelphia is more than a TD favorite against a division rival and they’re winless in their last three games.  Washington is coming off a win against Dallas.  The Foreskins are so inconsistent, that only you can do is assume they’ll lose after winning.  Washington is into the Murderer’s Row part of their schedule:  at Philly, at Tampa, Carolina, Atlanta, Philly again, at New Orleans.  That’s a brutal stretch where this team could lose every single game.  A healthy Donte Stallworth could be the difference.  The Eagles just re-upped with Reggie Brown – so they’re probably as confident about their receivers as they have been since the days of Mike Quick and Cris Carter.  Philadelphia 34, Washington 21.

The headliner game of the week:  Chicago Bears at New York Giants.  Close game to call.  My biggest question: Can the Giants get a pass rush without Strahan and a full-strength Umenyora?  I like the Giants to move the ball against the Bears – especially if they run straight at them.  New York 19, Chicago 12.

The Packers are not winning in Minnesota, period.  Minnesota 30, Green Bay 17.

Mangini has no miracles for the Jets in New England.  But I believe the Jets hang in there.  Low-scoring game.  Competitive game.  Patriots victory.  Brady won’t throw four picks again.  New England 20, New York 10.

Ok.  If you’ve ever lived in Michigan or watched the Lions for an extended period of time, you KNOW they’re losing today.  Why?  Because they’re allegedly playing well (last week’s win over ATL) and because they’re supposed to win (6 point home favorite over San Francisco).  Recipe for disaster.  Alex Smith and Frank Gore embarrass the sorry-ass Lions and piss off an entire stadium.  San Francisco 38, Detroit 17.

I like the Raiders to beat Oakland.  They played Denver really tough in Denver – and as bad as they were against Seattle, they can’t be any worse.  I think the Broncos are feeling themselves a bit – and the journey from Pittsburgh to Oakland should sap them a bit.  No pun intended.  Oakland 14, Denver 10.

I like Deion Branch and the Seahawks to beat the Rams, even without their lead dogs pulling the sled.  Seattle 27, St. Louis 20.

I like the Cardinals to beat the Cowboys.  This is Dallas’ third consecutive road game.  They’re going from Washington to Arizona.  Anquan Boldin is going to brutalize their DBs and I like Adrian Wilson to get a rep this week.  Len Pasquarelli has decided to write a feature article going into this game.  He’s the real deal and the Cowboys always have a tough time in the desert.  Leinart shows up and makes it happen.  Arizona 24, Dallas 21.

Carolina beats the Bucs.  Carolina 35, Tampa Bay 13.

And that’s the week that will be.

5 comments

  1. Nice picks – was hoping to see these before making mine. Nice call on the Indy game – damn! Another nice call on the Oakland game as that was close.

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