2006 NFL Season – Looking Back

Now that the regular season is over, except for a meaningless Favre-fest on NBC featuring the Packers and Bears, I’ve decided to put down a few reflections. This has been a strange season for many teams because of unbelievable inconsistency. The pendulum swings teams suffered this year will not be easily forgotten. The Giants, as a New York team, garnered most of the spotlight. They began the season 6-2, then proceeded to lose 6 of their next 7. The Denver Broncos began the season 7-2. They managed to limp across the finish line at 9-7 and miss the playoffs following a home loss to the 49ers. The Tennessee Titans began the season 0-5, and 2-7. With a rookie QB at the helm, they won 6 in a row and beat playoff hungry teams like Indianapolis, Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Jacksonville, and Buffalo. The Eagles played a high-flying, but inconsistent brand of football all season long. They lost on a 62-yard field goal to the Buccaneers, and then lost Donovan McNabb while playing against the Titans. The Eagles dropped that game and fell to 5-6. They haven’t lost since. They flew to 10-6 with road wins over the Giants, Cowboys and Redskins.

I can’t recall another season with so many ups and downs. At the beginning of the season, I had some bright ideas, and some that I’d prefer not to repeat. Here are some random thoughts about the season – as the Packers return an interception of Rex Grossman for a touchdown:

• I picked the Saints to win 10 games this season – and I thought Drew Brees would have a great year. I drafted Brees as my first QB in my FFL. The Saints, however, won those 10 games in a more convincing fashion than I imagined possible. The emergence of Marques Colston was totally unexpected. The team deserves a great deal of credit for their performance and their focus during this season.
• The Saints will likely approach the post-season with a great degree of composure. I suspect that Coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees will be able to call upon their experiences in big games to set the right tone on both sides of the ball. If the Saints can keep a commitment to the running game, they should be able to dominate weaker defenses like the Bears, Seahawks, Giants and Cowboys. Heavy doses of Deuce could go a long way.
• I didn’t have a good feeling about the Steelers this season. They turned out to be a bit worse than mediocre. The Steelers beat only 2 playoff teams this season: the Chiefs and Saints. I have to say that I was pleased to see their W over the rival Bengals today. The Bengal-Steeler rivalry is intense in large part because the coaches and veteran players respect one another, but many of the younger Bengals do not respect the Steelers and believe they have a superior team. Carson Palmer and TJ Houshmanzadeh have consistently stated as much. Of course, this position is becoming increasingly untenable as the Steelers consistently knock the Bengals out of the playoffs. Both teams may be tremendously disappointed with their seasons, but the entire Steeler Nation is smiling after knocking Cincy out of the playoffs.
• There were three calls on a single drive in the 4th quarter of the Pitt-Cincy game where officials ruled against the Steelers and allowed the Bengals to take repeated shots at the end zone. The first call was a roughing the passer call which likely ends the drive. Palmer is hit in the chest (it appeared the ball was still in his hands – OR – he’d just released it). The second call was a clear fumble which was ruled an incomplete pass. The third call was ruled pass interference. The Steeler DB was face guarding, but did not appear to touch the Bengal receiver. In the end, it matters little because the Steelers put these calls behind them just as they did in last year’s playoff game against the Colts. These were the same types of calls the Seahawks were not able to overcome in the Super Bowl…and even though they had the ball in the Red Zone three times, they couldn’t get the job done. Resilience does not have a permanent home, but it’s nice to see it show up occasionally.
• The Colts are a smoke and mirrors team who will not have a long run in the playoffs. Next week, they’ll play a team that I thought could make a strong playoff run this season. The Chiefs were lucky to make the playoffs. They dropped tough mid-to-late season games at Miami, home to Baltimore, at San Diego, and at Cleveland. However, they made the playoffs by beating a tough Jacksonville team. I’m wondering how the Colts will stop Larry Johnson next week. I know they did just fine against Rudi Johnson and the Bengals, but the Chiefs are fully committed to the running game. The Chiefs also have Ty Law and Patrick Surtain. I know they can’t run with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, but Ty Law has lived “rent free” in Peyton Manning’s head for nearly a decade.
• The Bears are in trouble. Grossman is not the answer. Griese is definitely not the answer – he’s just not Grossman. Without Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson, the Bears defense is not scaring anyone. Without the ability to pass the ball, the Bears simply cannot rely on Devin Hester to save their bacon in the playoffs. Perhaps the football gods (Papa Halas and Walter Payton) can scare up a blizzard or two to equalize home games for the Bears.
• The Steelers do not have an attractive Head Coaching candidate to replace Bill Cowher. If he leaves this year, the franchise must make sure that Dick LeBeau does not leave. The Steelers have considerable talent on both sides of the ball, but that may not be enough. There are significant needs along the offensive line. Alan Faneca is the lone star on that line. He needs help.
• I wonder if the Patriots were happy that Denver missed the playoffs? The Pats last few losses have been to AFC playoff teams Indianapolis, the New York Jets, and the Denver Broncos. The Chargers and Ravens are clearly the class of the conference. I don’t know that the Chiefs are much of a reprieve for anyone, but the Pats cannot be expecting to be around for long. I like the tandem of Dillon and Maroney, but I don’t suspect they can dominate teams who can use 7 defenders to stuff the run (Baltimore/San Diego).
• The Atlanta Falcons need a serious overhaul. They have a light defense which is susceptible to wearing down against physical teams. They have undersized running backs who cannot score rushing touchdowns in the red zone. They have wide receivers with questionable hands. They have a QB who is erratic and is ill-suited to the current system. I don’t know how much of this is attributable to the coach. Much of this sounds like the general manager has a long-term plan which has not come to fruition. The Falcons are run by the Bucs former GM who did a great job in Tampa…but McKay honestly has not been in Atlanta long enough to make the Falcons over in his own image. The team was not fashioned in Jim Mora, Jr’s. image either. The Falcons are a hybrid team missing several pieces and lacking direction. Firing the coach is not likely to solve all of the issues facing this team.
• Back to the matter of the Bears…Ahman Green just tossed a couple of guys off of his body – as if they were diseased. Don’t think McAlister and Marion Barber and Tiki Barber won’t do the exact same thing.
• The two rookie linebackers that I liked to have standout seasons were Houston’s DeMeco Ryans and Cleveland’s Kamerion Wimbley. I had opportunities to watch both play on several occasions collegiately – Ryans at Alabama; Wimbley at Florida State. Both were impressive then, and both were impressive this year. I didn’t see enough of them to decide which one merited consideration for an award, but some accolades are sure to follow.
• Maurice Jones-Drew is my offensive Rookie of the Year. Until his late season injury, my choice was the Saints breakout WR Marques Colston. Colston, after all, was a seventh round draft pick. I still like Colston a ton…but for me, what Jones-Drew did while playing behind Fred Taylor was remarkable. The 5′7″ (according to his measurements) Jones-Drew scored 15 touchdowns, finished 3rd in the league with 27.6 yards per return. He had a 93 yard return against the Colts (303 total yards for the game). He finished the season with 2,033 all-purpose yards. That’s getting work done. That’s my rookie of the year.
• Grossman threw another pick for a touchdown. The Bears are in trouble. It’s just too late to change QBs. Griese is not the answer. Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson and a healthy dose of trick plays? 1.3? Nope. Zero! 2-12, 33 yards, 3 picks!! I’ve seen this before – TWICE – at Arizona and home against Minnesota.
• Reggie Bush was not my choice for Rookie of the Year. His role was nearly identical to that of Maurice Jones-Drew. He was the backup to an established power runner; he was featured in the passing game and in the Red Zone and on Special Teams. Bush was very good this season – and he was often spectacular. He scored 8 touchdowns and had 1,490 total yards.
• Vince Young was the real deal during the stretch run for the Titans. Of course, QB is infinitely more difficult for rookies to play than running back, but I’m going with the little guy with the big game. Vince already gets prop. I suspect there are a few GMs who are wondering about Wunderlich tests and their applicability to the game.
• When is Norm Chow going to get a shot as a head coach? Can he coach the Steelers if Cowher heads to North Carolina? Noll-Cowher-Chow: Steeler Coaches from 1969 to 2020.
• Alex Smith and Frank Gore will be brutalizing teams in 2007. If you have a soft defense with a serious disdain for defending the run (that means you Seattle, St. Louis and Arizona), you’d better get a plan for next year because they will be bringing the pain. If the Niners get a reliable wide receiver, they could be lethal.
• As much as I like LaDainian Tomlinson, I can’t help thinking that his assault on the record book is greatly aided by changes in the rules. In the past few years, we’ve seen Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander score tremendous numbers of touchdowns in similar fashion. It’s impressive, but I am more impressed by Jerry Rice’s touchdown records when DBs had more latitude than they have now – and more impressed by Marino’s record when DB’s had more latitude than they do now and more impressed by the exploits of Jim Brown and OJ Simpson and Earl Campbell because the deck is as stacked as its ever been against defenses.
• Football is the ultimate contextual game. The rules are not always the same. As the rules change, the statistics change. Great players are likely to be great regardless of the generation in which they play. 33 total touchdowns are 33 total touchdowns. Amazing…but these seasons should always be viewed in context – especially when two other players have done similar things in recent years. Is this a trend or a singularly great performance? I opt for the former.
• Shawne Merriman should not be going to the Pro Bowl after having failed a test for the use of steroids.
• Terrell Owens is not worth the trouble. He’s worth the touchdowns, but not the trouble. If you want TD’s, you have to go through Owens, Moss or Harrison for consistently high numbers. Only Harrison is drama-free. Aside from Michael Irvin’s verbal gymnastics to justify the antics, Owens’ production does not exceed the overwhelming majority of elite receivers in the league with respect to catches and yards. The real question before a GM is whether or not his “issues” merit a roster spot in lieu of another elite wide receiver. I can think of 10 receivers who are better route runners, have better hands and are less trouble than Owens – moreover, given his advanced age, these receivers are more likely to be productive four or five years down the line: 1) Steve Smith and 1a) Torry Holt; 2) Chad Johnson 3) Larry Fitzgerald 4) Anquan Boldin 5) Santana Moss 6) Andre Johnson 7) Reggie Wayne Roy Williams 9) Lee Evans 10) Donald Driver. And then there are Hines Ward and Deion Branch. Whether these players will amass 100 touchdowns in their careers is still open for debate, but the ride will be quieter – and there will certainly be fewer dropped passes.

I’ll have more later on during the week.

Another Griese pick…he’s NOT the answer and the Bears are in trouble.  Now, watch ‘em go out and win the Super Bowl.

Notre Dame Delusions

Brady Quinn is under the illusion that ND’s losses to Michigan and USC really weren’t all that bad – that the scores were misleading, and that ND will be competitive against LSU in the Sugar Bowl.  I can’t blame him for that last one.  He’s a tough kid with serious skills, but I believe he’s had too much holiday Kool-Aid.

And we know that stuff will kill ya.

Just as ND’s fans have been deluded into believing they deserve this bowl bid – and that this bid is wholly unrelated to the Lou Holtz era teams with different academic standards – young Brady believes ND is right there – and on the verge of really competing with the big boys.  He might be right, but we won’t be able to tell by looking in the rearview mirror.  We’ll only know by looking ahead.

Notre Dame should play like a desperate team in the Sugar Bowl.  Anything less will disappoint.

Happy Holidays

From SNL to YouTube to Me to You:

NFL Predictions – Week 15

No predictions for those games in Seattle and Atlanta. Can’t say I’m surprised that Frank Gore ran for so many yards. I am surprised that it took him so long to get going. He hit the 49ers for 200+ in their first game of the season in San Francisco. This week he put up 25 points in my FFL league and I’m starting out in a deep hole. I sure hope that my big guns (Drew Brees, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker and Maurice Jones-Drew) can dig me out. Two of these guys have to get to Gore’s number for me to feel comfortable.

3 weeks to go. The NFC is still a mess. Seattle is falling back to the pack. The Cowboys are back on track, for now.

NFL Lines For Week 15 – NFL Football Line Week Fifteen
NFL Game Lines 12/17 – 12/18, 2006

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
12/17 1:00 ET	At Minnesota	-3.5	NY Jets	41
12/17 1:00 ET	At Baltimore	-12.5	Cleveland	34
12/17 1:00 ET	At New England	-12.5	Houston	38
12/17 1:00 ET	At Buffalo	-1	Miami	34
12/17 1:00 ET	Pittsburgh	-3	At Carolina	38.5
12/17 1:00 ET	At New Orleans	-10	Washington	46.5
12/17 1:00 ET	Jacksonville	-3.5	At Tennessee	41
12/17 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-13.5	Tampa Bay	35
12/17 4:15 ET	At NY Giants	-5.5	Philadelphia	44.5
12/17 1:00 ET	At Green Bay	-6	Detroit	45
12/17 4:05 ET	Denver	-3	At Arizona	43.5
12/17 8:15 ET	At San Diego	-8	Kansas City	46.5
12/17 4:15 ET	At Oakland	-3	St. Louis	39

Monday Night Football Line

12/18 8:30 ET	At Indianapolis	-3.5	Cincinnati	54.5

The Jets may have learned something from that loss at home to the Bills. With that said, though, it’s hard for me to pick the Jets on the road against any team that has distinguished itself on defense. The Vikings rank 1st in the league in rushing defense. The Jets will have to throw. They’ll have to beat Antoine Winfield and Fred Smoot in 1-on-1 coverage. It certainly can be done, but the odds will be in the Vikings favor for most of the time that the Jets have the ball. I don’t like the Vikings or the Jets, so I don’t suspect this game will go to form, but I’ll roll with the new Jets.  New York Jets 21, Minnesota 17.

Vegas is trippin’. The Ravens are 12.5 point favorites against the Browns and the over/under is only 34 points. Talk about predicting ugly. I believe that the Browns find their heart today and compete, but come up short. I like Crennel as a game planner against Billick – and I like the Browns defense to bear down today and get some good results. I suspect that the Ravens may be looking ahead to the Steeler game – and another opportunity to deliver the smack down and mathematically eliminate the Steelers from their title defense. Baltimore 21, Cleveland 16.

I like the Patriots to beat up on the Texans. New England 30, Houston 14.

I like the Dolphins to continue their winning ways on the road at Buffalo. Miami 24, Buffalo 21.

Carolina has been as bad as the Steelers. The Panthers may be a bit more desperate, but they’re alot more banged up – especially in the secondary. Hines Ward is healthy and they’re a different team when he’s healthy. Pittsburgh 31, Carolina 21.

New Orleans should do work against the Foreskins. New Orleans 38, Washington 21.

I’ll take the Titans in a shootout against the Jaguars. Jeff Fisher and company should have adjusted to the Jaguars approach to Vince Young – preventing him from running and forcing him to read defenses. Norm Chow will split the field in half to reduce Vince’s workload, and they could have some big success on 2nd and 3rd down if they able to exploit a short passing game on 1st down. Stay tuned. Tennessee 34, Jacksonville 28.

Mercy Rule for the Bears – Bucs game. Chicago 40, Tampa Bay 14.

Giants at home against the Eagles. Hmm. What to do? All of the objective TV analysts with ties to the Eagles picked the Eagles. All of the objective TV analysts with ties to the Giants picked the Giants. I’ll take the Giants to pull this one out. I believe the Eagles will be really focused, but will need some serious gimmicks to keep the Giants from running all over their defense. New York Giants 24, Philadelphia 17.

Packers – Lions in the WGAF Bowl. Green Bay 39, Detroit 17. 1 Roy Williams quote about how great the Lions offense is – and how “stupid close” the team was to scoring 40 points and winning the game.

I’ve wanted to pick the Cardinals against better teams all year long. I haven’t had much success with those picks. Still, I’m not all that impressed with Denver. They’ve been losing a number of games in recent weeks – as if they’re preparing for next year. Arizona will push them over the edge. Arizona 31, Denver 27.

I like the Chargers over the Chiefs. Can’t wait to see LT and LJ go at it. Should be great. San Diego 34, Kansas City 31.

Gotta take the Raiders over the hated Rams. Oakland 20, St. Louis 14.

Game of the week. The Colts are hosting the Bengals. The Colts will be without Brandon Stokely and Dallas Clark. That’s not a good thing. The Colts defense and offense have been hammered in recent weeks. The Jaguars and Titans locked the door on the Colts and will probably keep them from hosting an AFC playoff game. The race is not over, but the Colts are reeling. The addition of Ricky Proehl is sure to help, but it should not be decisive. Rudi Johnson’s ability to run out of passing formations on passing downs will be decisive. I like the Bengals to beat the ultimate smoke and mirrors team. Cincinnati 38, Indianapolis 31.

And that’s the week that will be.

Guantanamo’s Good Fellas

It turns out that all of those men from around the world snatched up by the US and sent to Guantanamo weren’t so dangerous after all. It seems that the need to waive all legal protections for these men was not as urgent as stated. No, it seems the need was about as imminent as the threat of weapons of mass destruction from Saddam Hussein. AP has released results of an investigation indicating that the overwhelming majority of those released from Guantanamo have been freed, and that the US will not be tracking their activities. Say what?

“They were part of Taliban, al-Qaida, or associated forces that are engaged in hostilities against the United States or its coalition partners,” said Navy Cmdr. Jeffrey Gordon, a Pentagon spokesman.

But Joshua Colangelo-Bryan, a lawyer representing several detainees, says the fact that hundreds of men have been released into freedom belies their characterization by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as “among the most dangerous, best-trained, vicious killers on the face of the earth.”

“After all, it would simply be incredible to suggest that the United States has voluntarily released such ‘vicious killers’ or that such men had been miraculously reformed at Guantanamo,” Colangelo-Bryan said.

Mohammed Aman, a 49-year-old Afghan who describes himself as a former low-level member of the Taliban, said he initially wasn’t worried when U.S. troops detained him.

“I was relaxed because I was innocent,” he said. “I was sure I would be freed. I was always thinking that today or tomorrow I will be free.”

He spent three years at Guantanamo until he was finally put on a plane at the base, blindfolded and with headphones covering his ears. When he made it back to his home in Malaik Khail, Afghanistan, villagers streamed out to greet him, many weeping.

Detainees are held at Guantanamo Bay because a military panel classifies them as an “enemy combatant,” which refers not only to armed fighters but to anyone who aids enemy forces. Every year, each gets a hearing to determine whether he remains a security threat to the United States or has intelligence value.

How is this possible? 200+ men arrested under the most absurd conditions and in strict violation of all that Americans (whores that they are) profess to hold dear. These Guantanomites were treated much like young Black men in cars…DWB (driving while Black – translation – for the American whores who profess one thing and live another) morphed into BWM (breathing while Muslim). The “detainees” (if that’s what you call someone locked in a cell for 4 years without a trial or compelling evidence to justify arrest much less incarceration) were branded as dangerous plotters of gloom and doom on all that is free and holy in the West. These same men, after a mere four years (some less) are being released without so much as a parole officer. Was this some sort of miraculous rehab in Cuba? Could the same principles be applied to those in Lewisburg and Marion and Lompoc (translation – max. sec. prisons for those American whores who profess one thing and live another)?

A proper inquiry into this would require our full knowledge of ALL of the US participants in this criminal charade. Moreover, we’d need to know the basis for their many flawed determinations. Finally, each of these participants (if found to have acted inappropriately) should be banned from public/legal/judicial service for life. Similar sanctions are handed down on Wall Street for transgressions of this nature. In addition to a lifetime ban, fines and prison terms should also be handed out pending the outcome of this investigation. In addition, private firms linked to these state sponsored activities should bear some liability for whatever benefits may have accrued under the auspices of these seizures.

I don’t suspect that miracles happened in Cuba. I suspect that some folks lied in order to strip back a few legal impediments. I suspect that the “free press” co-signed this effort just as they went along for the ride with the trumped up war evidence. I suspect that these folks should also be forced to meet their maker post haste because of the criminal venality of their actions. This list, of course, begins with those who instigated these actions in the first place. The primary mover or “decider”, if you will, should walk first to the gallows (of his own volition) to serve as the archetype for nobility gone bad. Falling on your sword or emptying that bullet in the chamber…it’s the only thing to do. Make that sacrifice. It’s the right thing to do.

After W is done, perhaps the Boy Scouts winner of the Silver Beaver Award would like to take a spin at Russian Roulette.  After all, he gets to decide who stays and who is released from that island paradise.

NFL Predictions – Week 14

This is going to be quick. Straight line jammy jams.

The final four weeks of the season. Lots of great matchups for the next four weeks. I’m going with the “strongest” teams to show and prove down the stretch.

NFL Lines For Week 14 – NFL Football Line Week Fourteen
NFL Game Lines 12/10 – 12/11, 2006

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
12/10 1:00 ET	At Kansas City	-3	Baltimore	36
12/10 1:00 ET	Atlanta	-3.5	At Tampa Bay	37.5
12/10 1:00 ET	At Detroit	-1	Minnesota	39
12/10 1:00 ET	At Houston	PK	Tennessee	42
12/10 1:00 ET	NY Giants	-2.5	At Carolina	39.5
12/10 8:15 ET	At Dallas	-7.5	New Orleans	48
12/10 4:15 ET	At NY Jets	-4	Buffalo	37
12/10 1:00 ET	Indianapolis	-1	At Jacksonville	44
12/10 1:00 ET	Philadelphia	-1.5	At Washington	40.5
12/10 1:00 ET	At Cincinnati	-10.5	Oakland	39
12/10 1:00 ET	New England	-3.5	At Miami	37
12/10 4:05 ET	At San Francisco	-4.5	Green Bay	43.5
12/10 4:05 ET	Seattle	-3	At Arizona	45
12/10 4:15 ET	At San Diego	-7.5	Denver	41

Monday Night Football Line

12/11 8:30 ET	Chicago	-6.5	At St. Louis	41

Of course I picked the Steelers at home over the Browns. I wouldn’t have picked a 27-7 final. I thought it would be closer based on their most recent game in Cleveland where the Steelers scored 21 points in the 4th quarter to pull it out. Too little, too late for the men in black.

I’m going with the Chiefs over the Ravens. The last time these teams met up, Tony Richardson had a field day running into and over Ray Lewis. The Chiefs don’t have Richardson anymore, but they still have Larry Johnson and they need this game. This is their season. Lose at home today and it’s a wrap. Kansas City 27, Baltimore 14.

The Falcons couldn’t have a better matchup today. The Bucs are reeling. Atlanta is desperate, right? Atlanta 19, Tampa Bay 17.

Minnesota in the dome at Detroit. No biggie. Vikings stuff the run and get Antoine some help over the top on Roy Williams (he’s gonna need it). Minnesota 24, Detroit 16.

Vince Young plays the Vindication Bowl and the Titans roll in Houston and the House that Steve Built. Tennessee 31, Houston 21.

Giants on the road against Carolina. Can anyone call this game? Chris Steinke Weinke starts today. That can’t be good. Giants 27, Carolina 17.

The Cowboys are big favorites over the Saints. New Orleans and my fantasy QB Drew Brees (8th Round, thank you very much) will be going into Big D without Marques Colston and Joe Horn. It doesn’t look good. But…the Saints can also line Reggie Bush out wide with Devery Henderson and Terrance Copper. I’m still not sold on Henry and Newman even though they’re having good years. I’ll roll with the upset crew and the power of a Deuce. New Orleans 38, Dallas 35.

Still not buying those Jets – even though they are winning and for sale at a low price.  Buffalo 21, Jets 20.

I’ll take the Jags.  The Colts are trying to find themselves and I suspect many of their defenders will find themselves under the feet of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.  Jacksonville 23, Indianapolis 18.

Eagles over Foreskins.  Blitz happy Eagles scare the rookie.  Philadelphia 20, Washington 10.

The Bengals had better have the necessary respect for the Raiders.  I don’t think they do.  Raiders finally score another big upset after coming close for so many weeks.  Raiders 21, Bengals 10.

I like the Dolphins over the Patriots.  Miami 17, New England 16.

The 49ers are on the outside looking in – and trying to get into the playoffs.  Easy and cheesy at home.  San Francisco 38, Green Bay 24.

Hawks eat Cards.  Seattle 31, Arizona 28.

Chargers over Broncos.  SD at home and getting healthier on defense.  I like ‘em.  San Diego 41, Denver 21.

Chicago and the hated Rams.  Rex on the road in a dome against an underwhelming defense.  Bears D minus Tommie Harris and a Grown Ass Man at running back.  Stephen Jackson could go for 150 and the Rams will still lose because Bulger is in a funk and the Bears D/ST can still put up 14 points.  Devin Hester could get to the house 2x.  Chicago 24, St. Louis 21.

And that’s the week that will be.

Failure in Iraq?

I suppose it depends on how you define the objectives.  I shared these thoughts over at P6…as part of a larger conversation regarding the success of George W. Bush’s stated objectives in Iraq and the region.

Of course, I was also compelled to take a peek at the Iraq Study Group.

“In light of the importance of Iraq to United States interests and the future of the region, there is urgent need for a bipartisan, forward-looking assessment of the situation in Iraq.

The United States Institute of Peace is facilitating the group with the support of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Center for the Study of the Presidency (CSP), and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University.”

The question of failure or success:

By the way, it seems to me as though the best case scenario for the US is a dictator who is on the same page as the oil companies: large concessions, limited freedoms, infrastructure in need of external development, and an aristocracy that does not work to the benefit of a middle class or lower class (usually bought off cheaply as “the cost of doing business”). The second best case scenario is a Western-style democracy with a “re-culturated” population with Western values and no commitment to ownership of their indigenous resources. That’s a very tough nut to crack, but it can be done. The American music industry and big-time collegiate athletics are proof of that. You can participate (or vote) as the case may be, but the outcome is already known. The worst case scenario is not what is presently happening in Iraq, but what is happening in Iran. In nation states or regions where identity congeals around a bond that supercedes the appeal of Western trinkets (Islam or Pan-Arabism), it is difficult to achieve Western aims without resorting to violence.

The case of Iraq appears, to me, as one of Best Case Scenario #1 gone bad. Repressive dictators have long been favorite agents of US international policy (in the same way that brutal Southern Democrats held sway after slavery). Hussein fit this bill to a tee. He decided to alter the rules of the game – and his patrons sought to bush him back in place. Saddam emerged as a willing combatant against Iran (Worst Case Scenario #1) and was supported for 8 long years with all manner of weapons, including those nasty chemical weapons. As a secular dictator, Saddam even evinced elements of Best Case Scenario #2. By introducing Western-style elements into Iraq, Hussein contributed to a foundation for indoctrination into a “concession culture.”

In many respects, his dalliances with the West hearkened back to early connections between Iraqi leadership and the British. Iran, though, remains a stalwart in their outright rejection of imperialist claims to dictate terms on any and all matters relating to energy: nuclear, natural gas, oil or other.

Given the longer term objective, it’s not clear to me that the US engagement in Iraq has been a failure. The US has removed a leader who posed as their BCS #1 and #2. They removed the infrastructure of his party and their base of support…and what remains is a battle for hearts and minds in which the US troops are largely relegated to the sidelines. The number of US fatalities amounts to about 3 months work for the Sunni and Shiite fighters. These are acceptable battle field losses – and the political damage, honestly, has been minimal. Republicans have lost the House and Senate, but the Democrats are not on the verge of an FDR or Clinton presidency. There are still plenty of domestic issues for Republicans to restore themselves – and even “create” a new type of Republican – that Pat Buchanan kind – the kind that could be more appealing to Red Staters than ever before.

The US engagement has allowed for the installation of a military presence in areas it did not heretofore exist. This engagement has even given the US a pretext for engaging Iran and Syria (as in…1) We rejected you and called you the Axis of Evil 2) We Need You to Save Face 3) You Saw Through Our Ruse 4) You’re Really Evil – we must attack!) This engagement also positions the US where it wants to be with respect to high priority conduits for energy resources (oil/gas pipelines feeding Russia and China. Given all of this, I am hard pressed to consider this a failure. In fact, I suspect that when history books talk about how the big conflict with the US and China tipped off, they’ll point to this particular series of engagements as seminal in that evolution.

NFL Predictions – Week 13

We’re getting down to the stretch run.  The separation of contenders from pretenders continues.  Last week, I decided to pick the “best team” instead of rolling with tons of upsets.  There was an exception to that…I picked the Titans to beat the Giants.  Sometimes, you just have a feeling.  I had that feeling last week about UCLA and they were able to pull it off, but I didn’t see the Bengals win over the Ravens coming.  I didn’t pick that game, but I would’ve probably gone with the Ravens in a higher scoring game.  If the Bengals can play that type of defense, they’ll get into the playoffs because they have the offensive talent to run the table.  Tick, tock.  Let’s get to it.

NFL Lines For Week 13 – NFL Football Line Week Thirteen
NFL Game Lines 12/3 – 12/4, 2006

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
12/3 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-9	Minnesota	34.5
12/3 4:15 ET	At Pittsburgh	-7	Tampa Bay	40
12/3 1:00 ET	At St. Louis	-6.5	Arizona	46.5
12/3 1:00 ET	Indianapolis	-7.5	At Tennessee	46.5
12/3 4:05 ET	At Miami	PK	Jacksonville	35.5
12/3 1:00 ET	At New Orleans	-7	San Francisco	44.5
12/3 1:00 ET	Atlanta	-1	At Washington	38.5
12/3 1:00 ET	Kansas City	-4.5	At Cleveland	36
12/3 1:00 ET	At New England	-13	Detroit	41.5
12/3 1:00 ET	San Diego	-5.5	At Buffalo	40.5
12/3 1:00 ET	At Green Bay	PK	NY Jets	39
12/3 4:15 ET	Dallas	-3.5	At NY Giants	43.5
12/3 4:05 ET	At Oakland	-3	Houston	35.5
12/3 8:15 ET	At Denver	-4	Seattle	40

Monday Night Football Line

12/4 8:30 ET	Carolina	-3	At Philadelphia	37.5

I like the Bears to beat the Vikings like a drum.  If Grossman plays under control (hard for Florida quarterbacks to do), it should be a rout.  Chicago 37, Minnesota 13.

I like the Steelers over the Buccaneers.  The Steelers have always done well against the Bucs and beat them soundly during the Bucs Super Bowl year.  I don’t see any changes here.  Pittsburgh 40, Tampa Bay 17.

I like the Rams to struggle against the Cardinals, but win.  The Cardinals won’t be able to capitalize on the absence of Orlando Pace.  Rams at home (still hate that team).  St. Louis 31, Arizona 30.

The Titans nearly beat the Colts in Indy.  They beat the Giants last week.  The Titans are able to match up with powerful offensive teams because they have playmakers at every level of the defense.  The D-line is solid.  The linebackers are led by Keith Bullock.  The secondary has the supremely talented (but otherwise challenged) Adam “Pac Man” Jones.  The Colts will need Joseph Addai this week.  I’m going with the hungry young guns playing at home.  Tennessee 27, Indianapolis 20.

I’ll take the Dolphins to beat Jacksonville.  Miami’s defense has found its inner child and is having fun again.  Jacksonville is up and down.  Luckily for me, Maurice Jones-Drew is up and up.  Vegas is conflicted about this game – but it’s in Miami.  Miami 19, Jacksonville 13.

Saints vs. 49ers.  Drew Brees, Drew Brees, and Drew Brees.  Saints win.  Frank Gore keeps it interesting.  New Orleans 35, San Francisco 21.

I could say some very unkind words about the Atlanta – Washington matchup, but I won’t go there.  But, I really could say some nasty things about both of these teams.  With that prelude, I’ll go with Jason Campbell and company to continue pounding the low-flying dirty birds.  LaDell Betts should do well.  Santana Moss may finally quit whining about his hamstring.  It’s taking all I have to contain the venom.  I’ll hurry up and move it along.  Washington 24, Atlanta 23.

The Chiefs are in a tough game at Cleveland.  They have to win this game.  I hope that Herman spoke with the Jets who’ve already dropped a game here.  Perhaps he had a conversation with his old coaching buddy Bill C0wher who nearly lost a few weeks back.  The Browns are not push overs.  If Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards ever get it going with a reliable running back, it’s going to be nasty.  Still – too much Larry Johnson for the Browns to handle.  I like the Chiefs defense to score a touchdown or two.  Perhaps special teams will get something going.  Kansas City 38, Cleveland 21.

I like New England to pound that pathetic franchise that masquerades as a professional football team.  New England 55, Detroit 0.

San Diego is a 5.5 point favorite at Buffalo.  The Bills are tough because J.P. Losman is playing better.  The other pieces have been in place for some time now, but Losman has been the missing ingredient.  This is a classic trap game for the Chargers.  Cross-country trip.  Opponent with a hot streak, but an inferior record.  Big divisional games on the horizon.  It’s all there for the Chargers.  Here’s the thing.  They get Merriman back on defense and they have Rivers and the league’s MVP.  I think this game goes down to the wire.  Nate Kaeding (Iowa) is used to kicking in bad weather.  He’d better have his A-game ready.  San Diego 23, Buffalo 19.

The Jets are at Green Bay.  Tough game to pick because the Jets are, well, the Jets.  This team won at New England and lost at Cleveland.  They should really be up for the challenge of going to Green Bay, playing against Brett Favre and rocking and rolling in Lambeau Field.  The Packers could care less about playing the Jets.  The Jets are motivated and looking to make the playoffs.  Big game for the Jets because of the Packers legacy.  Big game for the Jets because they should win.   New York Jets 34, Green Bay 28.

The Cowboys are en fuego and favored to beat the Giants in the Meadowlands.  I think the Giants SNAP OUT OF IT today.  It’s the game of the day, but I won’t over analyze it.  New York Giants 31, Dallas 27.

Raiders host Texans.  It’s the WGAF Bowl.  Oakland 13, Houston 10.

Jay Cutler gets his first start against the Seattle Seahawks.  Shawn Alexander is coming off a 200 yard game.  That’s not going to happen again.  The Broncos should be explosive tonite.  I’ll roll with the rookie and some big throws over the top to move the ball – and some short passes to the backs and tight ends in the red zone.  Denver 28, Seattle 24.

Carolina beats the Eagles because there is nothing else for them to do.  No McNabb.  No chance.  Carolina 25, Philadelphia 17.

And that’s the week that will be.

Notre Dame – Spreading the Holiday Shaft

It looks like a strong possibility that the University of Notre Dame football team will score an invitation to one of the coveted BCS bowl games.  You’ll recall last year that their doors were blown off the hinges by a high-powered Ohio State team that is playing for the national championship.  Many national media types thought ND’s Brady Quinn would outperform OSU’s Troy Smith and lead his squad to victory.  It didn’t happen.  In fact, that debacle on national television set the stage for the most memorable games of Notre Dame’s 2006 season: blowout losses to Michigan and USC.

Narrow escapes against pathetic Michigan State and a too-tentative UCLA squad will be highlights for the team video.  Promotions aside, Notre Dame has a long way to go and is not quite among the elite.  So, why are they scoring this multi-million dollar invite to one of the bigger dances?  It seems that there is a rule which precludes 3 teams from the same conference from participating in the series.  Some funny things happened at the end of the season and ND finds itself in a prime position to benefit from their legacy and the oddities  that define college football.

The Big 10 conference will send two teams to the BCS series: Ohio State (conference chamption) and Michigan.   The SEC will send its champion (Florida) and LSU.  The Pac-10 champion USC will be joined by Louisville (Big East), Oklahoma (Big 12), and Wake Forest (ACC).  These conference champions earn automatic bids.  Boise State is undefeated at 12-0 and is likely to get in.  That’s the 9th spot.  There is one spot remaining.

That final spot cannot go to an 11-1 Wisconsin team because they play in the Big Ten with Ohio State and Michigan.  The final spot may not be awarded to a valiant 10-3 Arkansas team (which should really, really focus on ignoring punts inside the 10 yard line) or to a feisty 10-2 Auburn team which has defeated both of its conference’s BCS representatives (Florida and LSU).  Less worthy teams like West Virginia and Rutgers played themselves out of consideration with “bad losses” to South Florida and Cincinnati, respectively.  As it stands, Notre Dame is next in line to benefit from this charade.

I suspect that in addition to the 3 powerhouses in the Big 10 and SEC who will be watching the BCS at home, and the 2 squads from the Big East, there are several other teams (Tennessee, California, Virginia Tech, perhaps even Texas) capable of delivering serious damage to ND’s psyche in a bowl game.  As it stands now, that task will fall to with a nasty, nasty defense and a powerful, physical offense.  There are no more weak sisters.  There are no more places to run and hide.  There is only exposure and repitition.  Whether the opponent is Boise State (not likely), USC (impossible), Michigan (a true injustice), LSU (an absolute disaster for ND) or Oklahoma (by all accounts a 12-1 powerhouse) or even Florida (see Michigan above), the Fighting Irish are in for a long ride.

Besides, does anyone really want to play the weak sister with the pretty dress and the bloody nose?  You are damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.  The real losers in all of this will be national audiences who are left to wonder how good that 11-1 Wisconsin team really is, or those who have not had a chance to see Arkansas against elite national competition because they were shopping while the Hogs tangled with Florida or were working while they battled the Bayou Bengals.  And what about Auburn?  Does anyone really think that ND could keep up with those other SEC Tigers?  These teams with a combined record of 31-6 and wins over elite competition will be on the outside looking in, while NBC’s favorite footballers go to the banquet.  Everyone and their mother has seen Notre Dame’s tired act (thanks to NBC).  Perhaps when the whistle blows to signal that BCS kickoff, the most important group of folks to see that tired act will be wearing maroon or purple or maize jerseys – and they will act mercifully, on our behalf, and put those pretenders out of their Rocknesia-induced misery.

Sadly, they are not what they were, nor what they need to be.  They are merely a shadow of whom they profess to be.  For those in the national media who would dare make them less a 7 to 10 point underdog in any matchup are only feeding a delusional Touchdown Jesus who hasn’t been redeemed on the field in almost 10 years.  Given the orientation of the school and the quality of their team, I’d much rather see them in the Holiday Bowl.

Florida or Michigan

I think it’s obvious that Florida played a tougher schedule than Michigan.  Still, the comparisons are almost exclusively Apples and Oranges.   Michigan played in a conference with 3 of the top 5 teams in the nation.  Florida played in a conference with 5 of the best 15 teams in the nation.  Better depth – similar top end quality.  

Only 1 team has played both Michigan and Florida.  Michigan’s first game of the season was at home vs. Vanderbilt.  The game was sloppy, but UM was dominant statistically.  They won 27-7.  Vandy didn’t win often, but they beat Georgia and lost to Florida 25-19.  Vanderbilt won one game in the conference.  Illinois won one game in the conference and came as close to beating Ohio State as Michigan did.  With that said, I don’t believe it means much of anything because football is about matchups, not “transferability.”  If it were about transferability, one could infer many things about mediocre teams which we know to be false: like Central Michigan is really the best because of x, y and z. 

Florida played five tough teams this year: Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, Georgia and Arkansas.  Michigan played three:  Notre Dame (looked tough on paper going in as an underdog), Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Of course Penn State and Iowa are always tough, but UM is not going to get credit for those W’s.  There are no other respectable teams in the Big Ten.  Teams like Penn State, Minnesota, Purdue and others will really surprise people if they win their bowl games.  These teams are not perceived as quality teams.  Still, look at Penn State.  They were smoked by ND in the 2nd game of the season.  After that, they lost 3 games to opponents with a combined record of 34-2 (OSU, UM and Wis.)  I don’t know how Penn State will perform in their bowl game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat a team from the SEC – any team outside of Arkansas and a full-strength Tennessee.  Remember that Iowa-LSU classic a couple of years ago?  People don’t give the Big 10 respect, then the bowl season comes around and the battle the SEC and ACC tooth and nail.  Of course, they invariably find a way to lose the Rose Bowl (unless Barry Alvarez was coaching). 

Conversely, there are four SEC teams in the top 15. 

It’s hard to make an argument for Michigan – even if you’ve seen them play.  I feel they’re better than Florida (I’m sure many of you feel the same way), but it’s irrelevant.  While Auburn fell apart in the Georgia game after beating Florida, they would probably wipe the floor with most teams in the Big 10.  It’s not obvious that any Big 10 teams walk through that SEC schedule.  Florida stumbled through it, but only lost 1 game.  If OSU, Michigan and Wisconsin win their bowl games, folks may have to rethink this thing – but we won’t know that until January. 

This anti-SEC bias is a serious and interesting thing.  It’s really paradoxical.  The south is widely recognized as playing the best brand of football in the country.  The region is also recognized as having the best athletes in the country.    The NFL certainly feels that way (see below).  Of course, there is a caveat with that.  The majority of elite athletes come from 3 states: Florida, Texas and California.  Only UF plays in the SEC.  Florida State and Miami (both of whom routinely beat the shit out of Spurrier-led Florida teams which won the SEC) were either independent (80’s), or in the Big East/ACC.  I’m looking for an answer – but that seems to be a part of it.  I don’t believe this bias was in place when Bear Bryant was coaching.  He edged out undefeated Penn State teams in the 1970’s.  This could all be a Spurrier hang-over for the conference.  LSU and Auburn both went through undefeated and didn’t get a shot.  How does that happen to them and not to USC?  Maybe it’s because the SEC is not on ESPN.  SEC games are only on CBS.  In New York, there are no SEC games at noon - only at 3:30 in the middle of the afternoon.  Maybe it’s the quarterback thing.  USC has had big name quarterbacks.  So has Michigan.  The SEC, aside from the Mannings, hasn’t had too much.  Think Matt Leinart vs. Jason Campbell. 

Just heard on ESPN, Vegas oddsmakers make Michigan a 6 point favorite over Florida on a neutral field.  Interesting.  I don’t think it’s relevant.  I think Florida hurdles Michigan and gets a shot.  I guess that means Michigan may end up in the Rose Bowl playing USC.  That could be a great game, but I honestly wouldn’t have much interest in watching.  I’d rather see Michigan play LSU.  I’d even rather see USC play Arkansas again.  I think that would generate a ton of interest around the country since the Hogs are clearly not the same team.  They couldn’t lose 50-14 again, could they??

From where I’m sitting, its not looking too good for the maize and blue.

FYI – NFL Players by College

BIG 10 –

Ohio State (40)

Michigan (36)

Wisconsin (28)

Penn State (31)

Purdue (22)

SEC –

Florida (35)

LSU (36)

Auburn (27)

Georgia (42)

Tennessee (41)