Michigan State Really Sucks II

Okay.  I said the Spartans were on the verge of repeating their collapse of last season.  I said they’d lose 6 of their last 8 games (minimum) since they were only two teams with abysmal offenses (Illinois and Indiana).  Today, the Spartans lost to the Illini, 23-20.  I believe on Monday, there will be a press conference announcing that Michigan State is no longer a member of the Big 10, that football season has been cancelled and that the school is considering dropping the program.

Oh they’re bad.  This almost makes up for Michigan’s Webber-induced basketball woes for the best 10 years.  Nah, not quite.

NFL Predictions – Week 4

“Back…caught you lookin’ for the same thing; It’s a new thing, check out this I bring…” – Public Enemy, Don’t Believe the HypeLast week was a good one for prognosticators near and far. Let’s see what’s on tap for this week.

My team is off and some of the matchups heading into the week are not exactly A-list material. Still, there could be serious separation this week given that two sets of undefeated teams will square off when San Diego travels to Baltimore and the Seahawks head to the Windy City to meet the Bears. You know I’m saving those games for last.

NFL Lines For Week 4 – NFL Football Line Week Four
NFL Game Dates 10/1 & 10/2, 2006

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
10/1 1:00 ET	Indianapolis	-9	At NY Jets	46.5
10/1 1:00 ET	San Diego	-2.5	At Baltimore	33.5
10/1 1:00 ET	At Buffalo	-1	Minnesota	35
10/1 1:00 ET	Dallas	-9.5	At Tennessee	37
10/1 1:00 ET	At Kansas City	-7	San Francisco	40.5
10/1 1:00 ET	At Carolina	-7	New Orleans	42
10/1 1:00 ET	At Atlanta	-7.5	Arizona	40.5
10/1 1:00 ET	Miami	-3.5	At Houston	40.5
10/1 4:05 ET	At St. Louis	-6	Detroit	43.5
10/1 4:15 ET	At Cincinnati	-6	New England	46
10/1 4:15 ET	Jacksonville	-3	At Washington	34.5
10/1 4:15 ET	Cleveland	-3	At Oakland	33.5
10/1 8:15 ET	At Chicago	-3.5	Seattle

Monday Night Football Line

10/2 8:30 ET	At Philadelphia	-11	Green Bay	48.5

After last week’s games, I came up with my own spreads and over/unders for this week. I don’t have the list in front of me, but I was close on several of these. I had Indy as a 13 point favorite over the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets, with the o/u at 46. The Jets were two tremendous plays away from being smoked by a subpar New England Patriot squad at home. Coles (do you think I’m trying to spell Laveranues correctly?) and Jericho Cotchery made “play of the year” efforts to get into the endzone. I don’t like the odds of a repeat performance against the Colts. Indy’s Cover 2 will force Chad Pennington to make quick throws into tight spaces. I’m still not convinced he can do it – unless he has the type of time that Dwight Freeney and company seldom allow. The Jets have an intimate knowledge of the Colts. They were division rivals for decades. Dungy and Herman Edwards were close friends and new Jet coach Eric Mangini comes from the Patriots. There will be no surprises in this game. This game should come down to skill in execution. The Colts have much more skill. Pennington gets sacked about 6 or 7 times, throws three or four picks and the Colts win easily by a score of 35-14. PS, I expect Jonathan Vilma to have a HUGE game in a loosing cause.

In the “That’s What Super Bowls Are Four” bowl, the Vikings meet the Bills in an incestuous matchup that features the return of former Bills Antoine Winfield and Pat Williams. I expect the Vikings to be smarting from their premature jocularity last week against Chicago. The Bears talked about smiling Vikings last week before their comeback W. Not this week. Minnesota plays with a straight face, avenges two W’s (Winfield and Williams) and picks up a 3rd. Chester Taylor, Chester Taylor, Chester Taylor. No fumbles, please. Vikings 17, Bills 16. Taking a road dog from the NFC North can’t be a good idea.

Dallas at Tennessee. I could care less. You can take this game and shove it…but before you do, take the Cowboys but don’t expect them to cover because this is a signature game for the Titans. Everybody and their mama in the state of Tennessee will be trying to get tickets to this game. The Titans have a little something going with Travis Henry (if he can stay on the field…and the coaches get Chris Brown off the field) and those tight ends. I like Cowboy TE Jason Witten (former Tennessee Vol) to score at least once in this game. He could go for 9-120-2 if he gets some game plan love from the coaches. Dallas 27, Tennessee 7.

San Francisco at Kansas City. Alex Smith vs. a Cover 2 defense with Patrick Surtain and Ty Law on the corners. Age or beauty? I’ll take beauty on Sunday. But I don’t beauty will be enough to outdo the beast that is Kansas City’s ground game – especially without Vernon Davis. Larry Johnson off a bye week against a week sister from the NFC? Sounds delicious. Kansas City 24, San Francisco 17. Right at the spread, but over the line. If the Chiefs can’t score 24 points this week, their prospects for big offensive games the rest of the year are minimal. This game, even without Trent Green, will tell the world how much progress Herman Edwards has made with this team on both sides of the ball.

I know the Saints just came off of the biggest win in franchise history. I know the Carolina Panthers have Steve Smith back and desperately need a division win at home. But, the Saints win against Atlanta was not a knock-down drag out fight. It wasn’t a debilitating loss that wore them down. And, besides, if you’re 3-0 and really want that city and the nation to believe in you, you simply cannot afford to come out flat against Carolina. The Panthers are still the class of the division, but the Saints have the ability to play many different styles thanks to Drew Brees’ arm and Deuce McAllister’s power game. With Dan Morgan out of the middle, Deuce could get loose and take a run at the Panther safeties. I like the Saints to beat the Panthers. This is my riskiest pick of the week, but I said I thought this team could win 10 games – and if they can get this one, I believe you can book playoff tickets for this team. This is the moment for the Saints coaching staff to really galvanize the team – it was easy last week. What better time for an “Us against the World” message than now. No one believes the Saints can win this game on the road – and the city of New Orleans cannot make the flight. The coaches call on the team to man up and make it happen in the face of insurmountable odds. Saints 24, Panthers 21. NOTE: If the Saints lose this game and the players “blink” by referring to the Atlanta game, the team will spiral down.

Atlanta at Arizona. Everyone liked the Cardinals coming out of the gate, but now they’re not looking as attractive as they did in camp. Kurt Warner has returned to routine fumbles. Matt Leinart may not be ready. Edgerrin James is beginning to wonder if he’s being used properly. The Cardinals have some problems. On Sunday, one of those problems will be a zone blocking offensive line wearing black and red. Falcons roll, 37-17.

Miami is a road favorite at Houston. The Dolphins are going to lose this game. The Texans can score points. The Dolphins still haven’t figured out how to get the “bisquit in the basket.” David Carr is the league’s top rated passer. I knew he’d have a good year, but not this good – especially without Domanick Davis. I thought he’d be an early MVP candidate – but they’ve been losing without an effective running game. Carr, however, has enough to beat the unimpressive Dolphins. The atrocious Texan defense better break out the smoke and mirrors if they’re going to stop Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers. Still, the Texans can rely on the fact that an underaggressive Miami offense is not likely to score more than 24 points. Houston 27, Miami 20.

The woeful Lions are en route to being disemboweled in St. Louis. Mike Martz will have so much to prove in this game…I’m predicting a sideline blowup between he and head coach Marinelli. Marinelli absolutely loses it after Martz signals the offense to GO FOR IT on 4th and 25 – then burns two timeouts with 30 seconds left in the first quarter. Martz is put in a headlock during halftime, passes out and an assistant coach is compelled to call plays for the rest of the game. Martz wakes up as the Rams win the game with a conservative offensive drive that culminates in a field goal from only 19 yards out. An irate Martz blasts the media for instigating his firing from the Rams, begs for his job back and petitions Dick Vermeil (who oddly enough is broadcasting the game) for character references. At the end of the game, Roy Williams says he’s better than Torry Holt – and that’s it’s just stupid how close the Lions came to putting up 40 points. John Kitna’s line – 50-75, 199 yards, 0 TDs. St. Louis 9, Detroit 6.

Jacksonville at Washington. I’ll take the JagWIRES. The Foreskins are still an enigma. This team has not had a convincing positive performance this season. Only their debacles have been compelling. If the rumor mill on Mark Brunell is correct (that he is more concerned with the rush than the route), then his day will be filled with images of Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts and every politician in DC can forget about running on Sunday. I like Rashean Mathis to continue intercepting passes. He could get Brunell for three or four picks…that depends on how much the ‘Skins throw the ball behind the line or to the other side. In any case, it ain’t hapnin’. Jags 30, Foreskins 3.

Cleveland at Oakland. No comment.

Cincinnati vs. New England. The Patriots are done. At the beginning of camp, I thought the Pats were onto something because they had so many tight ends on the roster – and they still had Deion Branch. Without Branch to stretch the field and run familiar routes, the Pats are subject to defenses ignoring the deep passing game. Until Doug Gabriel and others prove they can hurt you, teams will focus on Dillon and Maroney. Corey is going back to Cincinnati and the Bengals won’t be the least bit bothered. I will say this though…as crappy as I believe the Patriots are, they still watch film. Last week’s Steeler game is going to provide someone with some serious film for shutting down the Bengals. In the second half, the Bengals had five drives, ran 21 plays and gained 22 yards – with 3 punts, a pick and a fumble. Belicheck is sure to queue up the VCR and make notes on how best to deploy his troops. The main problem, however, is insufficient armor. The Pats don’t have the guys to get the job done on either side of the ball – but if Billy can get the smoke and mirrors going – look out. Cincy 45, New England 21.

Philadelphia hosts Green Bay in the “We’d Be Undefeated If We Had Brett Favre, Not! Bowl.” Philly is not sexy as an 11 point favorite, but the Packers are another team whose true personality has yet to come forward. The Packers just might be a decent team after all. The defense is young, but they’re hitting people – and we know that Philadelphia has tons of little wimpy guys who love to COUGH up the rock in big moments – that means you WESTBROOK! I suppose I could also be referring to Reggie Brown, Greg Lewis and Ryan Moats – but why kick a team when they’re up after beating the 40Whiners? Green Bay steps up on Monday Night with a little Spreadus Interruptus. Philly wins 30-20.

And now, for the Separation Anxiety games. Chicago hosts Seattle.

The Bears are a 3.5 point favorite…but, they’re going to lose. Seattle’s defense is as good as the Bears when they need to be. Chicago has the benefit of “contests” with Detroit and Green Bay four times each year. No team in the NFC West is as dysfunctional offensively (Favre’s inconsistency notwithstanding – Who the hell is Greg Jennings?). Seattle has better corners and comparable linebackers. The Bears are better up front – but Ray Rhodes’ schemes are at least as solid as those devised by Lovie Smith and Rivera. On offense, the Bears will be at Seattle’s mercy when they spread the field. We already know that Brian Urlacher needs help from his D-line to shed guards and centers. There will be no such help against Seattle. When the ‘Hawks go 4 wide, Urlacher will be 1-on-1 with a center or guard and Mo Morris. Morris is not the type of guy that can run over or away from Urlacher – but he can lean forward and pick up 3 or 4 yards on second and third down. That’s all the ‘Hawks need. Seattle’s best bet is to spread the field and keep the Bears 3 LB’s off the field. This game plan will work whether Seattle is leading or trailing the game – and the Seahawks would be wise to run a no-huddle – without rushing up to the line to run plays…keep the Bears D-line in their stance, prevent substitutions and only take what they give you…We’ll see how that Rick Manning pick up worked out for the Bears.  Seattle 27, Chicago 26.  Three touches + 2 FG’s over Two touches + 4 FG’s.

San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens. Note to ESPN’s John Clayton – “Shawne Merriman is NOT arguably the BEST defender in the NFL.” He’s barely wet behind the ears and as long as guys like Casey Hampton, Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed, Jamal Williams, Derrick Brooks and others can still find their way to the parking lot…you need to put all of that craziness on hold. The Chargers are looking good. The Ravens are looking inconsistent. The Chargers are coming off a bye and the Ravens are also coming off a bye (they played Cleveland last week and squeaked out a 1-point win). Both teams have clearly been looking forward to this game. The Chargers are also looking forward to hosting the Steelers next week, and avenging a loss last year. The Ravens have to get it together. It just may be that the Ravens were keeping things very, very close to the vest in the early weeks because they knew some trickeration would be needed against San Diego. The Chargers DBs are still suspect. Terrance Kiel has lost his mind…and Todd Heap is likely to kick off a big celebration in his honor. Will the real Baltimore Ravens please stand up? If this is the game that announces the reunion between McNair and Derrick Mason, the Chargers will get electrocuted. If it’s the game where LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates make Ray Lewis look geriatric, the Ravens will be nevermore. I’ll take the home team.  Baltimore 16, San Diego 14.

Oh yeah, Cleveland 26, Oakland 17.

An Open Letter to ESPN – No More Tee-Oh Coverage

Dear ESPN:

Cease and desist.  Enough is enough. 

Your producers may be seduced by ratings spikes in the same way that bloggers have been known to “chase traffic.”  Whether it’s chasing an ambulance or lingering over a train wreck, I believe the production managers at ESPN are running the asylum.  Your reporters, especially former athletes like Tom Jackson, Mark Schelereth and Sean Salisbury, are simply tired of covering the man Bill Parcells refers to as, “the player.” 

I could put together a lengthy eloquent plea that chronicles my long standing INSIDER membership, my magazine subscription and more.  I won’t.  Such a plea is as beneath me as your continued wallowing in this muck of a story (all of the stories – not just the “suicide” story).  I simply want to remind that there are thousands of stories that merit consider attraction and could generate ratings if framed properly. 

How about an expose on addiction to pain killers in the NFL?  How about raising the bar and pulling out the rug from under Roger Goodell by focusing on steroid use?  How about acknowledging that there are other wide receivers in the NFL – and some of them actually hang on to the ball when running crossing routes in front of linebackers?  Perhaps Kenny Mayne should take over all of the operations in Bristol. 

If the inmates are going to run the asylum, your looniest resident (and most beloved) should be in charge.

Find your self, ESPN – before you begin to lose your heart and soul – your membership.

Cincinnati Bengals – Just a Thought

Prior to Ricardo Colclough’s muffed punt in the fourth quarter of yesterday’s Bengals-Steeler game, the Bengals were having a bit of trouble moving the ball.  Colclough is usually not in the game when the Steelers are “backed up” near their goal line because his hands and judgment are not the best.  Cowher decided the Steelers had enough room to get a decent return and kept Santonio Holmes on the bench.  The Bengals punter boomed a 58 yarder.  A punt of that distance means the kicker has outkicked the coverage – he’s kicked the ball farther than the coverage squad can effectively maintain lane discipline and interrupt the formation of blocking lanes and wedges, etc.  Colclough knew this as well – and he took his eye off the ball to sneak a peak.  The ball hit him in the head.  The Bengals recovered the ball at the 9 yard line – and the next play was a touchdown: Palmer to Houshmanzadeh (championship!). 

Why are Steeler fans, like myself, so annoyed?  Before this miscue (an unforced error in tennis talk), the Steelers were up 17-14.  In the five second half possessions before this fumble, the vaunted Bengals offense had managed 3 punts, 1 interception, 1 fumble and 22 yards – on 21 plays. 

Cincinnati won this game because the defense and special teams kept the room from falling in during this part of the game.  The Steelers only managed 10 points in the 3rd quarter.  The Steelers were held scoreless in the latter part of the first quarter and the entire second quarter when they were headed to a 14-0 lead before Ben Roethlisberger misfired and found a Bengal defender instead of Heath Miller in the endzone.

The Steelers could blame Ricardo Colclough for his error as the primary cause of the loss, but there are some considerable kinks to be worked out on offense.  The Steelers still do not have viable replacements for Antwan Randle-El or Jerome Bettis.  While the team rushed for 170 yards yesterday, the turnovers and the failures on 3rd down were insurmountable.  This team is still trying to find itself – to claim a 2006 identity.  It has not happened yet, but there should be no cause for excessive celebration in Cincinnati.

After all, the road team has won the last five games.  If Cincinnati requires 5 turnovers to beat the Steelers in the Queen City rematch in December, it won’t happen.  There is considerable room for improvement on both sides.  Perhaps the thing a Bengals fan should take away from yesterday is that on a day when Carson Palmer is sacked 6 times, fumbles, throws two picks, Rudi Johnson averages less than 3 yards per carry and Chad Johnson has only 1 catch for 11 yards – Cincy still got the job done.  They didn’t come to Pittsburgh to get style points.   They came to get a W.  Mission accomplished.

Insert cliche: “The Bengals can beat you a lot of different ways.”

Michigan State Sucks, Period

I didn’t want to write anything about last night’s game in East Lansing, but damn, the Spartans suck.   I could see the end coming at the end of the first half.  Notre Dame had the ball and was trailing 31-14 (or something like that).  The Spartans had three timeouts.  They didn’t use a timeout until there was a deadball situation and about 30 seconds on the clock.  They didn’t go for the jugular – and they know damn well they don’t know the first thing about closing out games.  They barely did it last year.  The Spartans ran for over 200 yards last night, but couldn’t run for first downs in the fourth quarter with a 17 point lead – even after a downpour.  Last night’s game was a comedy of errors and the coaching staff took their foot off the gas.  With a 260 pound running back, the Spartans lost one possession when QB Drew Stanton fumbled on an option play.  They lost another possession when they threw the ball on 3rd and 3 (or something like that).  It was one of the worst displays of game calling and execution that I’ve seen.  Notre Dame did all that they could to win and State did all they could to lose.

Last year, I wrote that the Irish weren’t nearly as good as people thought they were heading into their bowl game against Ohio State.  They weren’t.  I also thought they could lose six games this year.  They probably “should” have lost last night (whatever, they won – so, you could say they “should” have won).  ND’s schedule only has one or two more challenging games before USC.  Purdue and UCLA may be challenging, but there is no telling which team will show up.  The luck of the Irish has held at Georgia Tech and at Michigan State.  ND will probably cruise through to the USC game.

I suspect, however, that this year the Irish will get thumped out in Southern Cal.  I also suspect they’ll get thumped in their bowl game.  If the Irish get to the end of the season with the blemishes being blowout losses to Michigan and USC, their national appeal will get them invited to a BCS bowl where they will be overmatched and get absolutely smoked by a team like LSU or Auburn or West Virginia or fill in the blank.

Michigan State will probably crumble and lose 6 of the remaining games on their schedule.  Since the Spartans are exclusively a first half team, they cannot be expected to beat a team they cannot knock out in the first 30 minutes.  The only teams left on their schedule subject to such a knockout are Illinois and Indiana.  I expect losses to Michigan, Ohio State, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota and Penn State.

NFL Predictions Week 3

I missed the predictions for Week 2,but rest assured that I hit on all my picks. You can take my word for it.

On to business – the Week ahead. Here are the lines and Over/Unders for Total Points Scored.

NFL Lines For Week 3 – NFL Football Line Week Three
NFL Game Dates 9/24 & 9/25, 2006

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
9/24 1:00 ET	At Buffalo	-6	NY Jets	34.5
9/24 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-2	Cincinnati	42.5
9/24 1:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-7	Jacksonville	43
9/24 1:00 ET	At Miami	-11	Tennessee	35.5
9/24 1:00 ET	Washington	-4	At Houston	37.5
9/24 1:00 ET	Chicago	-3.5	At Minnesota	35
9/24 1:00 ET	Carolina	-3	At Tampa Bay	34
9/24 1:00 ET	At Detroit	-6.5	Green Bay	39
9/24 4:05 ET	Baltimore	-6.5	At Cleveland	33
9/24 4:15 ET	At Arizona	-4.5	St. Louis	44.5
9/24 4:15 ET	At Seattle	-3.5	NY Giants	43.5
9/24 4:15 ET	Philadelphia	-6	At San Francisco	42
9/24 8:15 ET	At New England	-6.5	Denver	39.5

 

Monday Night Football Line

9/25 8:30 ET	Atlanta	-4	At New Orleans	43

There are a few big games on the schedule today. Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati, Indy hosts Jacksonvillle, and the Seahawks host the Giants. I don’t know what the post-season implications are, but the biggest game of all has to be the Monday Night game featuring the return of the Saints to New Orleans. The Falcons will have their hands full in this game because the emotional weight of returning to the SuperDome is sure to transform the Crescent City into something special. Of course, on Tuesday morning, things will return to normal and folks can go back to wondering how a citywide system of privatized charter schools is supposed to provide adequate education for some of this nation’s poorest children. Fiscal equity is a fundamental contested issue in American politics. The future of New Orleans depends on the resolution of this question. That’s a story I’ll be following.

In the first game, I like the Bills to put the smack down on the Jets. Bills CB’s Clements and McKee are infinitely better than those corners in New England. Don’t expect much from Laveranues Coles or Jericho Cotchery today. The Bills corners can play on an island all day long. That allows the other 9 defenders to focus on the run or the occasional running back or tight end in a pattern. The Jets don’t threaten defenses downfield with their backs or tight ends. They should tomorrow. If not, they’ll probably not score more than 10-13 points. I don’t think that will be enough to win on the road. Take the Bills and the under, 20-10.

I like the Dolphins to find their way against the Titans. Right now, the Titans are like a road map for lost teams. The Jets cured what ailed them and the Chargers refined what they already do well. If the Titans drop to 0-3 in the conference, the season is absolutely over for them and there will be little sense in sitting Vince Young. But, if Kerry Collins can put some points on the board, the Titans might have something to play for. The Dolphins don’t have a real homefield advantage because they’re fans are to sedate. Collins is too big of a question mark. Take the ‘Phins and the under, 24-7.

I’m going out on a limb. I’m taking the Texans to beat the Foreskins. I know the Texans are terrible, but so is Washington. Carr is better than Brunell. At this point, I don’t know if Portis is playing. I don’t like Ron Dayne, but he can in a zone blocking scheme. He is a known quantity to Texans coach Gary Kubiak. He’s starting on Sunday. I’ve written extensively about how I thought the Texans would be able to score points this year (before Domanick Davis went down). With two upper echelon wideouts in Andre Johnson and Eric Moulds, plus a pass catching tight end, defenses have to respect spread formations and single back sets for the passing game. Dayne should be able to get four yards per carry in a single back set behind zone blocking, especially against nickel defenses. Downhill, one cut and get low. It’s real simple. I’ll even take the over: Texans 31, Foreskins 20.

There will be desperation in the air when the Carolina Panthers take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams were picked to battle for the division lead in the NFC South and both teams are on the outside looking in. Being 0-2 in a division with playoff-ready QBs like Drew Brees and Michael Vick is not a good thing. The loser of this game will be in a tremendous hole. The game is in Tampa. I don’t think it matters. If Steve Smith plays and plays well, the Panthers will win. If does not play, the Panthers will lose. The o/u for this game is 34 points. That’s tight. Field goals could define the game. Carolina 22, Tampa Bay 9. That’s 2 td’s, 2 fg’s and a safety. If Steve Smith can’t go, I like the Bucs to win: 13-10.

I’ll go with the Lions over Green Bay. I’m guessing that Favre has a bad dome day after having to read Marinelli’s Cover 2 all day. Mental fatigue sets in and Brett re-claims this winless Packer bunch as the most talented team he’s played with. Detroit 40, Green Bay 6. To paraphrase Detroit WR Roy Williams after the Seahawks held the Lions to 6 points in Week 1, “It’s just stupid how close we came to putting up 40 points in this game.” The Lions get 40 on Sunday. The Packers get 6.

Ravens over Cleveland. It should be easy. Ravens 35, Browns 10.

St.Louis over the Cardinals. I like Arizona and hate St. Louis, but that’s my pick. I don’t even think the Rams are particularly good this year, but that’s my pick. It doesn’t even feel good. Yuck! But, that’s my pick. Rams 38, Cardinals 35.

I like McNabb to put some big numbers up in San Francisco, but I don’t know if the Eagles won’t have a hangover from their loss to the Giants last week. They still don’t have a power running game. San Francisco has proven that they’ve made progress since last year. Perhaps if they had Brandon Lloyd and Antonio Bryant with Frank Gore, I’d like their chances a bit better. They don’t. Even with the hangover, the Eagles pull it out, 21-17. I’m taking the under. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles are trailing late in this game.

Playoff rematch game on Sunday night between Patriots and Broncos. Should be interesting. I heard a report on ESPN that Plummer snapped out of his funk last year in a game against the Patriots. He may do it again. The difference this year is that Jake Plummer has to be looking over his shoulder at rookie Jay Cutler. Cutler has a higher upside than Plummer. I think the pressure is going to be too much for the Snake. At this point in the season, I don’t believe the Patriots are particularly good. Then again, they don’t have to be. They have time and they have the luxury of playing in a division with underperforming Miami, Buffalo and the Jets. The Patriots could win their division at 8-8. With that said, I like the Pats to hold serve at home. I’d like to see Brady get the ball to his tight ends down the field against Denver’s speedy linebackers. That’s the most intriguing matchup for me: Al Wilson, DJ Williams and Ian Gold matching wits and muscles with Ben Watson, Daniel Graham and company. Patriots 45, Denver 21. Don’t ask where that number came from. I have no idea – but it’s there.

There are a number of showtime games this week that deserve the early spotlight.

1) Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings. This is the game that will tell me if Rex Grossman is for real. The jury is still out. I’ve thought that he was the guy for the Bears since they drafted him. He seems to have the personality and makeup to do the job (from where I’m sitting in Brooklyn). He definitely has the physical skills. The Vikings defense, though, is tougher than people know. Kevin and Pat Williams (no relation) are both enormous tackles who make it prohibitively difficult to run. The Vikings have a lot of tools on defense. I don’t know that they have enough on offense. Chester Taylor is the real deal. Is that enough? Will he be able to run against the Bears? How will the Vikings attack the Bears? Running on first down? Passing to set up the run? I’ll take the Bears. If the Bears get a 2 TD lead, it will be a wrap. Chicago 31, Minnesota 17.

2) New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks. Too close to call. Last year, the game was lost at the end of Giants PK Jay Feely’s feet. Right now, I believe these are the two best teams in the NFC. The Bears are not proven on offense, even if they are improved. The Panthers are 0-2. Atlanta is right there, but I think they’re only going as far as their pass rush takes them. In other words, they’ll win as long as a healthy John Abraham is rockin’ and rolling. The Giants and Seattle are both proven offensive and defensive teams. The Giants defense, however, has not played to expectations this year. The pass rush, in particular, has been absent. Coordinator Tim Lewis, in my opinion, simply is not using Lavar Arrington properly. The Giants are generally trying to get pressure with their front four. With Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyora, the G-men have reason to believe this approach will work. They may shift and line Strahan up as a tackle and bring Arrington down on the line…they may not. If they’re not able to get pressure on Hasselbeck, they’ll lose. Deion Branch is slated to play tomorrow as well. Because both of these two teams have so many weapons (both have injured TEs – Shockey and Stevens), the defenses have to be sharp. The Giants defense is not as sharp right now. Seattle 31, Giants 27.

3) Hotlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints. I’ve dubbed this game the Juke Joint. There are a few players in this game with tremendous agility. The SuperDome will not be a good place to be if you’re the ACL, MCL or PCL on a linebacker. Warrick Dunn, Michael Vick, DeAngelo Hall, Reggie Bush. Wow! That’s going to be amazing. I like the Saints to win a close one – 27-23. Way back when, I picked this year’s Saints to win 10 games. It might have been a big ambitious – but if they win Monday night, they’ll be 3-0 and alone on top of the division. They’ll also be almost a third of the way to my estimate.

4) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts. This is going to be huge. I like the Colts though. The Jags play them tough, but the Jags are still a classic AFC North team playing in the South. The Jags bloodlines were built by the Steelers, Ravens and Titans. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne should be able to get off. Indy 24, Jags 14. I’m taking the under.
5) Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. This is the big game for me. Steelers – Bengals is where it’s at right now. It’s bigger than Steelers – Ravens, for now. There will be some serious talent on the field. I think Rudi Johnson will get his yards, but it will take him about 28-30+ carries to dominate the game. I don’t know that he gets that many carries. Carson Palmer will have a serious axe to grind against the Steelers. I don’t think it will matter. I like Ike Taylor, Deshea Townsend and Troy Polamalu to do their thing. I am concerned about the free safety play for the Steelers though. I already miss Chris Hope. Cowher did the right thing playing Ben Roethlisberger last week. The first game back is always tough. The team couldn’t afford for the first game back to be a loss at home to Cincinnati. A conference loss to the Jaguars doesn’t hurt nearly as much. Smart move. I like Ben to bounce back, recapture some timing and I think both teams will put up some points. Pittsburgh 38, Cincinnati 24. Las Vegas thinks this game is going to be high-scoring as well. Only the Indy-Jags, Seattle-NYG, Arizona-St. Louis games have higher overs. Given the outstanding performances to date by these defenses, these are big props for the offensive potential of this game.

[NOTE: Watching College GameDay Show on ESPN - tons of "Free Clarett" signs on display in Columbus, Ohio. No further comment.]

We’ll see how it goes.

Democracy In the Middle East

Historian Steven Pressfield believes he knows exactly Why We Will Never See Democracy in the Middle East. 

I’ll begin by posing my first question as one of audience.  I could assume that the “we” in this article refers to the entire world, but the entire world does not have a vested interest in democracy in the muddled east.  It might refer merely to the United States, Europe and Israel.  The focus may be narrower than that; it may be greater.  In any event, the “we” remains undefined and open to interpretation. 

A related question is, “Who wants democracy in the middle east?”  It’s not exactly clear who wants that.  The United States has certainly not made an unequivocal commitment to extending democracy in the middle east.  This, and previous, administrations’ relationships with Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran suggest ambivalence, at best, to the principle.  Does China want democracy in the middle east?  That’s not likely.  How about the Israelis?  Democracy is not at the top of the list.  It may be valued, but it’s simply not a priority.  So, the question remains, “Who are we who want democracy in the middle east?”  Pressfield doesn’t answer.  Perhaps he doesn’t have to.

Pressfield writes:

“I’ve spent the last four years writing two books about Alexander the Great’s campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, 331-327 B.C. What has struck me in the research is the dead-ringer parallels between that ancient East-West clash and the modern ones the U.S. is fighting today — despite the fact that Alexander was pre-Christian and his enemies were pre-Islamic.

What history seems to be telling us is that the quality that most defines our Eastern adversaries, then and now, is neither religion nor extremism nor “Islamo-fascism,” but something much older and more fundamental.

Tribalism

Extremist Islam is merely an overlay (and a recent one at that) atop the primal, unchanging mind-set of the East, which is tribalism, and its constituent individual, the tribesman.

Tribalism and the tribal mind-set are what the West is up against in Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, the Iraqi insurgency, the Sunni and Shiite militias, and the Taliban.”

Pressfield does not take a position on Extreme Zionism, but I must imagine it is born of the same permanent tribalism he identifies in Iraq and Afghanistan.  He is clear that the issue is not religion.  I would imagine that Judaism is also a mere overlay to a deeper, non-negotiable identity.  It seems odd to exclude Israelis from this regional/cultural formulation when so much of the history parallels his framework for proto-Muslims in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere in the middle east.  The same in-group, out-group tension; the same internecine violence (seeking to consolidate and monopolize force against an external enemy); etc.  It’s striking that this group was excluded given the number of parallels.

Perhaps the Israelis were excluded because of an oppositional formulation that assumes the legitimacy of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Pressfield’s article, written on September 11 insinuates a connection between that attack by non-democrat, non-citizen Saudis and tribesmen in Iraq and Afghanistan…but he never states that this is his position.  The connection is made as though it were real.  He writes, “In the five years since 9/11, much looking-back has been done. The problem is we haven’t looked back far enough. To understand the nature of the enemy in the Middle East and to evaluate the prospects for democracy and peace, we need to extend our gaze not five years into the past, but five hundred and even five thousand.”  Aside from the connection between attacks on the WTC and Pentagon and these wars (unintended or not), there is another issue.  Middle Eastern democracy is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for peace.  In fact, in the absence of an explicit and principled demand for democracy, the notion will not even be considered.  In other words, if the Saudis don’t have to be democratic and the Israelis don’t have to be democratic (recognition of elected political parties), then neither do the Iraqis or Afghans or anyone else in the region who chooses not to embrace this form of governance. 

It’s also curious as to how the Saudis escape explicit mention in this article.  The regime is neither democratic nor a protector of human rights.  Still, the US government and the Saudi regime are on the best of terms.  The same could have been said of Saddam Hussein in the 1980’s.  His “invasion” of a former British protectorate serves as a justification for his fall from grace.  This story, however, only retains currency in major US media outlets.  It has been thoroughly discredited among the global press for almost a decade.

The crux of Pressfield’s article is that tribesmen and citizens cannot live side by side.  His historical recollection of the American path to democracy, however, is written from the perspective of a tribesman.  Pressfield, in the fashion that has come to typify so-called “white” historians, ignores the experience of those outside of his tribe.  After all, when did the United States really become a democracy.  It certainly was not a democracy in 1964.  It may have looked like one – with pretty archives and dusty documents – but it was as much a tribal regime as present day Afghanistan.  It was wealthier and it was a modern capitalism society, but it was tribal.  It remains that.

Of the citizen and democracy, Pressfield writes this:

“A citizen prizes his freedom; therefore he grants it to others. He is willing to respect the rights of minorities within the community, so that his own rights will be shielded when he finds himself in the minority.”

AND

“The democratic virtues of the Enlightenment, the Rights of Man and the American Constitution are not virtues to the tribesman.”

In the context of the United States, this qualifies as tribal revisionism.  This positively anti-historical view repositions the tribe of so-called “whites” at the center of a multi-racial democracy in which rights and virtue result from rational thought rather than embarassment at devilish behavior (terrorism: church bombings, lynchings, etc.).  Pressfield resides in an imaginary world (and he is not alone) in which America became a democracy through enlightenment, rather than bloodshed.  In his imaginary world, the “citizen” is free, rather than a person with obligations to the state or empire.  Even though he likely lives in a nation that does not have direct electoral representation, illegally retains prisoners on the territory of another sovereign state; and continues to practice the tribal game of redistricting, Mr. Pressfield pushes on with the myths.

My question is why?  Is the myth more important than the book sale or is his tribal identity so inextricably wound up in this democracy psychobabble that he can no longer see his way clear?  Perhaps the illusion of elections is sufficient to demonstrate “democracy.”  Perhaps the true calculus of influence is too complex for the mind of the citizen.  It is certainly not too complex for the mind of the tribesman.  After all, it was the mind of tribesmen like James Wilson and Thomas Jefferson who authored and effected the Three-Fifths Compromise.  This clause is perhaps the single greatest tribal legislation ever written.  It began three centuries of unrivaled American tribalism leading to poll taxes, Black codes, and other repressive measures.  

I wonder what revenge “white” tribalists are seeking here.  Perhaps Mr. Pressfield has an answer. 

Steelers Shutout – So What!

I watched the Steelers and Jaguars get it on last night in a classic NFL throw down.  It was the most intensely physical game I’ve seen this year.  The outcome was not surprising.  These two teams have battled for the better part of a decade.  The games are always physical.  The Jaguars won because they were better last night.  Period.

The Steelers lost because they were unable to move the ball and demonstrate offensive continuity.  The Jaguars defense had as much to do with that as the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger.  The national media believes they may be witnessing something significant with respect to the demise of the Steelers.  What is significant, however, is the rise of the Jaguars.  I have been disappointed in the past by the Jags.  I picked them to beat the Patriots in the playoffs last year.  The Jags, however, did what the Steelers did last night.  David Garrard had led the Jags to a number of late season wins and into the playoffs following an injury to Byron Leftwich.  As the big game approached against the Pats, Jack Del Rio elected to go with Leftwich.  He has a huge arm and the coach felt his starter game him the best chance to win.  Cowher did the same thing last night in choosing to Roethlisberger. 

There is one other dimension.  As much as it may hurt to get shut out and lose a conference game, it is far more important that the Steelers win a DIVISION game against the Bengals in Pittsburgh.  It is important that Roethlisberger get back into the mix as soon as possible.  This year, the Steelers will be sure to get every team’s best game of the year.  Exhibit A: the Miami Dolphins.  The Steelers, having played at Jacksonville, will also go to San Diego (they won there last year); to Atlanta (they tied in Pittsburgh a few years back) and to Carolina (by which time, Steve Smith will probably have returned to a hungry, desperate team).  The Steelers conclude their season at Carolina, home against the Ravens and on the road in Cincinnati.

That’s how big NEXT WEEK’s game is…that’s the context for starting Roethlisberger this week.  Last year, the same level of hype was thrust upon the Indianapolis Colts after they beat the Steelers…it was Roethlisberger’s first game back from injuries originally suffered weeks before in San Diego.  The Steelers lost, but left a blueprint for defending Manning and company in the second half.  I will remember Jacksonville’s inability to punch the ball into the endzone last night as much as anything.  I expect to see them again in December or January – and I expect the outcome to be different.

More Stuff on “BlackFace Joe”

I should have known that this issue was picked up on a lot of blogs.  There is an interesting perspective here from Kai Chang.  The issue probably should not be dropped because it could be symbolic of something larger.  It appears that the personalities involved in this representation, and the subsequent dissemination and defense, are close colleagues.  This stands to reason.  However, the political arc of these individuals is trending up.  If the trend continues, this circle of affiliation may have it’s very own “macaca” to deal with.

Liberal Dismalcrats would not be willing to bear this burden.  Still, there are disturbing patterns within this collective that may merit continued observation.

And the Beat Goes On…

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